Hi, guys !
I was trying to get some poker numbers by myself and the answers that I got were a bit different when compared to the ones from this thread which seems pretty reliable.
https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/2...d-flop-242373/
So, what are the chances for a "bad flop" when holding KK ? (ace on the flop without a set)
-chances for an ace-high flop
1 - (48/52 x 47/51 x 46/50) = 1 - 0,783 = 21.7%
In the brackets I calculated the chances that ace won't be on the flop which is 78,3% and that means that ace will be on the flop 21.7%.
This number (21.7%) should be correct as I found the same one later on the internet somewhere.
- chances to flop a set/quads when holding KK
1 - (48/50 x 47/49 x 46/48) = 1 - 0,8824 = 1 - 88.24% = 11.76%
I did the similar calculation in the brackets again. Ik that brackets are not needed but it's better visually.
And now finally !****
To have a bad flop for KK we need to:
- miss a set/quads (88.24%)
- have an ace high flop (21.7%)
88.24% x 21.7% = 19.1%****
And some numbers that were mentioned in that post were:
-20.67%
-23.43%
-22.6%
-23%
What am I doing wrong ?
This looks so nerdy, it is just a few percent difference.
But try to understand me and ty in advance !