Simple game design... math problem... help! - Page 2 - Gambling and Probability

This is the correct interpretation. Either a player dies or the bomb changes status, and one of those things happens every time.

To the others: thank you so much for this very fruitful thread.

Quote

01-04-2019 , 12:14 PM

#27

David Lyons

old hand

Join Date: May 2003 Posts: 1,459

Quote:

Originally Posted by heehaww

This is hopefully my last code post / bump ITT

Excellent. So if I read the data correctly, a 9 second game (with max 9 'rolls' excluding rerolls) always gives a player just under 20% chance of winning, withe the bomber being a slightly better choice than the saver. Right?

Quote

01-04-2019 , 03:04 PM

#28

heehaww

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 5,081

Quote:

Originally Posted by David Lyons

Correct.

And I can explain how being a member of the 40% dog gives you an equal/better chance compared to being a member of the 60% favorite. When the bombers win, more of them are alive than the # of living savers when the savers win. The bombers win before the time is over, whereas the savers usually win via time expiration, by which point more of them are dead.

Quote

01-05-2019 , 07:55 AM

#29

heehaww

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 5,081

So much for "no more code bumps". The optimizer has a bug if the fair time is under 5 seconds. After finding the upper bound, its first guess shouldn't unconditionally be .75*bound and the step size shouldn't unconditionally be bound/8. Those are correct whenever the bound is greater than 5, otherwise the first guess should be bound/2 and the first step size should be bound/4.

So the first while loop of fairtime() should be:

Code:

    while(true)
        p,q,w = cs(time)
        if p<q begin time*=2 end
        elseif p>q
            if time>5.0
                step = time/8
                time *= .75
            else
                step = time/4
                time /= 2
            end
            break
        else break end
    end

And the same change should be made to teamfairtime().

Quote

Page 2 of 2

First

1 2

Last

Post Reply Subscribe

...

Page 2 of 2

First

1 2

Last