Quote:
Originally Posted by somigosaden
I don't believe you, just from reading this thread. You say above that you are one of the greatest sports statisticians of all time, and yet you need to come to this forum to ask for the likelihood of a couple basic stats problems? And then you need someone to calculate the SD for you?
And kicking the extra point when down 8 points late in the game is no longer standard. People have finally started doing something that was figured out decades ago (and which Sklansky credits to Chip Reese), which is that going for two in that situation increases your odds of winning. Now that everyone uses analytics in football, it's become the standard play to go for two when down eight. The fact that you seem very ignorant of stuff like this and yet have a delusionally high opinion of yourself makes it plain to an outside observer that your record of bad luck is also a delusion.
I will say though, for people who have been on this board long enough, there was a post in I think BBV long, long ago where someone posted a graph from PokerTracker that showed them running some impossible amount below all-in EV. Like over 250,000 hands at medium stakes and he should have been up a million and was break-even, or something ridiculous like that. I've always wondered what the real story was behind that. If anyone can find the thread, I'd love to see it, but bear in mind in may have been on the old UBB forums.
Luv your candor and directness ("I don't believe you ..."), but when somebody is clearly making light of their own mathematical ability, you don't get to then accuse them of being delusional about how good they think they are. That won't work. I get that you weren't making the distinction between sports statistics and statistics as an academic discipline.
I am very interested in your comment on the obscene run bad example you gave. I remember Caro writing about such things as well. I love that subject. I love streaks and somehow they find me. For instance, one streak I love is Joe DiMaggio's 56 game hitting streak MLB amazing record. But that was not Joltin' Joe's longest professional hitting streak, and you get to pay me off, as others have, if you bet that it is (he hit in 61 straight in the Pacific Coast League's San Francisco Seals in 1933).
You feel me? So I gave that question to a bartender in NYC and he went wild saying he would make a fortune. Another guy same night tried to bet me that Joe D. appeared twice in the list of 20 longest MLB hitting streaks, but the other one was Dom, not Joe. So I win again. I do streaks.
Somehow I won 31 times in a row in the PLO game, full sessions not hit and run, and when I asked around the longest I ever heard was 24. Of course they take it as bragging, but I was trying to discuss anomalies, not being a great player. Caro indeed wrote about this too, some guy that won 68 in a row or something by winning one or two or ten dollars and cashing out, doing it a few times a day, totally bogus. But my streak was more like, "What are the odds that someone with an established 65% win rate would win 31 in a row?" And that number, which I needed help with, is anomalous in a sense.
I've just been involved in some incredible streaks. What can I say?