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Old 06-29-2020, 06:42 AM   #1
Large Big Mac Meal
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Sample size variance odds

An event has true odds of occurring 1 in 200 times.

In the first sample of 200 it occurs exactly 0 times.

In the second sample of 200 it occurs 6+ times.

How do I work out the likelihood of this happening?
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Old 06-29-2020, 09:22 AM   #2
heehaww
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Re: Sample size variance odds

(199/200)^200 * [1 - binomcdf(200, 1/200, 5)] ≈ 1 in 4832

where binomcdf is the Binomial distribution's cumulative distribution function. A TI graphing calculator calls it binomcdf(); spreadsheet software calls it binomdist().

The combinations represent arrangements of two symbols: there are C(5,2) ways to arrange AAABB, for instance.
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