Sample size variance odds - Gambling and Probability

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Sample size variance odds

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06-29-2020 , 06:42 AM

Large Big Mac Meal

enthusiast

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 80

An event has true odds of occurring 1 in 200 times.

In the first sample of 200 it occurs exactly 0 times.

In the second sample of 200 it occurs 6+ times.

How do I work out the likelihood of this happening?

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06-29-2020 , 09:22 AM

heehaww

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 5,081

(199/200)^200 * [1 - binomcdf(200, 1/200, 5)] ≈ 1 in 4832

where binomcdf is the Binomial distribution's cumulative distribution function. A TI graphing calculator calls it binomcdf(); spreadsheet software calls it binomdist().

The combinations represent arrangements of two symbols: there are C(5,2) ways to arrange AAABB, for instance.

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