Home game, am totally card dead. Finally pick up KK and get it all in against AJ.

Run three times.

1. AJJXX
2. AXXXX
3. AXXXX

The first time was funny as the flop was AJJ. The aces came on both the second and third flop.

what are the odds here, particularly with dead cards?

Thanks.

I run 10 million simulations with these assumptions:

- a party holds AhJh
- the other party holds KsKd
- each simulation runs three boards.

The results relative to the AhJh party:

In the results above, -3 means that KK won all three showdowns; -2 you have 2 KK wins and a draw and so on. As we can see, 3 wins for AJ happened about 2.2% of the times, so not an absurd outcome.

I might have made mistakes in my simulation; however I think the results should be in that ballpark. You can make a check with pokerstove. The above hands are 32.5/67.5 for the first board; you can see that, if we suppose the first board to be AsJcJd2h3s for instance, AhJh is still 26.4% to win the second board, despite the heavy hit. So you are roughly 8-9% to win the first two boards and 2/2.5 to win all of them.

Of course things may change if the AJ are not suited (I simulated the most favourable case for AJ, suited and the kings of other suits).

Thanks...I figured it was about 50-1, which it sort of is...either way, not bloody likely!!!

Called it a night after that...played 4 hours, won two hands. Got stacked on two hands where I was 92% and 87% after the flop (and got all in on flop).

Sometimes it's not your night!

I disagree. If you play enough (and in this case "enough" really isn't that much) it's almost inevitable that it will happen.

not sure if you are still interested as the OP seemed satisfied with your answer,
however....

your simulation included 7 possible outcomes, when you include the possibility of showdown being a draw shouldn't there be 10 possible outcomes:
from the perspective of AhJh
loses 3, 0 draw
loses 2, 1 draw
loses 2, 0 draw, 1 win
loses 1, 2 draws
loses 1, 1 draw, 1 win
loses 1, 0 draw, 2 win
loses 0, 3draws
loses 0, 2draws, 1 win
loses0, 1 draw, 2 wins
loses 0, 3wins


what drew my attention to the simulation results is that -1 seemed unusually high, given that my understanding of that is it represented kk winning once and 2 draws. as simulated the first board resulting in a draw is just .39%.
so why such a great frequency of 2 draws occuring.

Most of -1 come from 2 KK wins and 1 AJ win. I showed just the net results; some of the outcomes might come in more than one way. For instance 0 can be either three draws (which is very unlikely) or 1 win apiece and 1 draw (more likely). In both cases, you get half of the pot. An AJ win is +1, a KK win is -1 and a draw is 0.

This is how the score maps to pot share:

ty nickthegreek