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Old 08-01-2017, 01:59 PM   #1
BankerCA
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Join Date: Jul 2017
Posts: 3
Risk of Ruin Standard deviation as dealer bonus bets

As many of you are aware here in California with the exception of Indian casinos, Card rooms can not be house banked. The players have the option to bank these games. Usually players decline and the Third Party banker (contracted banking corporation) will take the action. The card room gets a fee per round depending on the action. I only bank the blackjack game. House rules are terrible for the player at a 1.8% house edge. I factor in another 1% for incorrect play, which brings the bankers edge to 2.8%.

Another great opportunity at the blackjack table is an optional player side bet called "Buster Bet". There are several different pay tables used for this bet. The most common pay table brings a 4.7% house/banker edge. When the dealer bust the player wins according to the pay table. If the dealer does not bust, the wager is lost.

I believe I am playing with a sufficient bankroll, however I have tried for hours to try and calculate my Risk of Ruin Vs. Doubling my bankroll.

QUESTIONS:

1. Is the standard deviation the same playing the dealers hand?
Since the dealer acts last, doesn't get extra pay on a BJ, Can't double or split, how does this change the standard deviation? or is it the same?

2. What is my risk of ruin vs. Doubling my bankroll?
$20,000 bank roll. Assuming 1 player bets exactly $100 per round. Assuming a 2.7% edge playing the dealer/bankers hand.

3. What is my risk of ruin vs. Doubling my bankroll if I bank the "Buster Bet" side bet?
House edge of 4.724%. The charts online list a standard deviation of 2.724
Assume exactly $20 is bet per round on this side bet. $20,000 bankroll
Here is the pay table:
Bust with 3 cards 1:1
Bust with 4 cards 3:1
Bust with 5 cards 6:1
Bust with 6 cards 30:1
Bust with 7 cards 100:1
Bust with 8 cards 200:1

There was recently a rule change at some of the card rooms regarding this buster bet. Prior to this rule change $35,000 was required to bank the bonus bet. Now a player only needs a minimum of $100. I will have $1,000 on the table. On question #3 please consider a maximum of $1,000 will be paid in the event of a 7 or 8 card bust. I do this to limit my variances. Don't ask me why but people will still play the bet even if there isn't enough money to cover all possible bonus bets. This will also raise the edge since my maximum loss per round will be $1000. With the rule change the contracted house banker will no longer pick up action if the Player banker can not cover. Since all wages may not be covered in the event of a 7 or 8 card bust with $20 per round in action this will raise the banker/house edge. I find $1000 is optimal to still bring in Bonus bet action but also limit my risk.

I am getting many different numbers when I use the online calculators. I do not have the Blackjack Attack book that some recommend to find the Standard Deviation per 100 hands that some calculators require. I simply do not understand the charts that some prior post recommend on standard deviation.

If someone can help me with the above 3 questions I would greatly appreciate it! Also, if you have any questions on banking these games I can answer as well.
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Old 08-05-2017, 04:46 PM   #2
BankerCA
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Join Date: Jul 2017
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Re: Risk of Ruin Standard deviation as dealer bonus bets

$25 ITunes gift card for answer.

I will keep it simple...
I need the risk of ruin vs. Doubling my bankroll. 2 questions listed below:

1. Playing the dealer position in blackjack with a 2.7% edge. $125 bet per round by one player given a $20,000 bankroll or $15,000 bankroll, what is risk of ruin vs. doubling?

Along with the above answer:
2. What is my standard deviation per 100 hands given the above stats?

$25 Itunes for answer along with formula.
To keep it fair, if interested shoot me a private message letting me know you are interested and I will respond back. This way I don't get more than one person answering the question with only one gift card.
Thanks!
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Old 08-07-2017, 03:01 PM   #3
BankerCA
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Re: Risk of Ruin Standard deviation as dealer bonus bets

Any help would be greatly appreciated!
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Old 08-09-2017, 12:12 PM   #4
md46135
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Join Date: Mar 2015
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Re: Risk of Ruin Standard deviation as dealer bonus bets

if you want to calculate your risk of ruin, it's not enough to have just your edge (house's edge actually). you also need the deviation of that edge. for a game like blackjack I guess the most simple thing would be to find this info somewhere online if it exists. if you can't find it for that exact variant I guess you would just need to take an approximation, it would help if you know if your variant is more or less in house's favor than the "basic". if you want exact numbers, you'd need to solve that variant yourself...

I don't know if there's an exact formula for risk of ruin, but it could be easily simulated. if you know some basic programming, you can do it yourself.

Quote:
House edge of 4.724%. The charts online list a standard deviation of 2.724
is standard deviation that small in blackjack? in poker std. dev. is like 15x bigger than edge (winrate).
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Old 08-14-2017, 08:38 PM   #5
PokerHero77
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Join Date: Oct 2008
Posts: 163
Re: Risk of Ruin Standard deviation as dealer bonus bets

IMO this is best accomplished with a simulation. That way you can take into consideration player types, betting ranges, # of players playing at same time, etc.

I would never trust a calculation with so many parameters.
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