Don't laugh at me - Gambling and Probability

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12-15-2012 , 01:34 PM

CajunDragon

grinder

Join Date: Jul 2009 Posts: 571

How do we figure out the probability of a 70/30 hand matchup winning 3 times in a row (assuming aipf no post flop decisions)

Do you just do .7 * .7 * .7 = 34%

I'm horrible at math so be gentle with the needles. Whats a good primer book to read on general probabilities & odds?

Thnx

Geoff

Last edited by CajunDragon; 12-15-2012 at 01:35 PM. Reason: I fuc*ed up!!!!!!

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12-15-2012 , 02:06 PM

Sherman

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,766

The probability of a series of independent events is in fact the multiple of the probabilities of said events. So yes, as long as each 70/30 matchup is independent then it is .7 * .7 * .7 which is sometimes written as .7^3 or .7³.

As for a book, I cannot advise. Read this forum regularly.

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12-15-2012 , 02:08 PM

heehaww

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 5,081

Yes.

For primers, KhanAcademy and PatrickJMT are probably good (don't know about books but those video lecture series are free).
http://www.khanacademy.org/
http://patrickjmt.com/

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12-15-2012 , 02:20 PM

CajunDragon

grinder

Join Date: Jul 2009 Posts: 571

Quote:

Originally Posted by heehaww

Yes.

For primers, KhanAcademy and PatrickJMT are probably good (don't know about books but those video lecture series are free).
http://www.khanacademy.org/
http://patrickjmt.com/

Ok small mental victory..hhehe. My friend got it in ahead in an MTT yesterday 3 times from a short stack and lost the last on the bubble for $1600. He just kept saying he was ahead every time but I had the urge to say that he was definitely a dog to win all 3 but wanted to be sure with the math before opening my fat mouth. We'll I've lost some weight but you get the idea. lol

Thanks.

As I get better at poker I am starting to yearn for more of the underlying math. I gave the mathematics of poker a shot by Bill Chen but def not for beginners who quit school in the 11th grade. I aced that G.E.D. though!

Geoff

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12-15-2012 , 07:20 PM

VBAces

veteran

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 2,473

But after the 1st two, he was still a 70% favorite to win the 3rd one.

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12-15-2012 , 08:04 PM

RustyBrooks

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 24,647

Quote:

Originally Posted by VBAces

But after the 1st two, he was still a 70% favorite to win the 3rd one.

Sure, but if your goal was to get it all in as a 70% favorite 3 times in a row, you should expect to get knocked out most of the time. Which is something people do not tend to expect.

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12-16-2012 , 01:12 AM

BruceZ

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 11,877

I've got that damn song stuck in my head now from the title.

Don't laugh at me
Don't call me names
Don't take your pleasure from my pain
In God's eyes we're all the same
Someday we'll all have perfect wings
Don't laugh at me

http://www.azlyrics.com/lyrics/markw...laughatme.html

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12-26-2012 , 08:57 PM

vanderswaag

centurion

Join Date: Dec 2012 Posts: 121

S. ROSS "A First Course in Probability". 5th Edition, Prentice-Hall (1998).

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