Hello! I wanted to use a simple formula to calculate my EV for open-minraises from the SB: I wanted to see how wide I can open trash, considering villains 3-Bet frequency and his calling frequency and my average loss per hand postflop when hes calling (for this I've filtered my database and could simply see how much I lost on average whenever I raised, got called and we saw a flop).

Assuming the following: We min-raise, villain folds in 20%, 3bets in 30%(we always fold to a 3bet) and calls in 50%. When he calls I lose $0.3 on average. I would calculate it like this:

EV = (1BB+0.5SB)*0.2 - 1.5BB*0.3 - 0.3*0.5
EV = 0.3 - 0.45 - 0.15
EV = -0.3


My question would now be, is the formula I'm using correct or am I forgetting something? And furthermore, is the total loss we are making using that formula -0.3$ or is it -0.3-0.5 (adding the loss of the SB we've posted). I mean if we are losing only -0.3 by raising under these circumstances, playing would lose less than folding, right?

just to avoid confusion, I ment I lose 0.3bb on average. I would think that if the result of my calculation is negative, the loss of 0.5bb (SB posted) would have to be added and therefore a fold would have been the better choice, but I'm not sure a 100% certain, would be great if someone could confirm this. Thanks!

Define EV as the expected or average change in your stack size as a result of a decision/action, where the stack size is that amount just before the action.

When doing an EV analysis, you have to clearly define the decision point. All money you put in the pot before then is not to be considered as a loss if you lose the hand but is considered part of the winnings if you win the hand. I believe that in your example you are making the decision to raise or fold, the latter having an EV of 0.

For raising, the pot is 1.5BB consisting of the opening bet of the big blind and your 0.5BB contribution. The 0.5 you initially invested is not considered to be part of the loss. Therefore your equation is correct for the future actions you assumed, ignoring all other factors as stack size, tournament standings, etc.. However, your conclusion is wrong, for folding has 0 EV, greater than the -0.3 of raising.

Note, if you want to include the initial 0.5BB loss with a raise decision, you also have to include that loss for a fold, resulting in the same conclusion. It simply depends on how you define the EV baseline- your stack at decision time or your stack at the beginning of the hand.

got it! TYVM, very much appreciated!