Question about changing value and odds of winning
Join Date: Sep 2008
Posts: 642
Sorry for the vague subject. I'm not exactly sure how to describe my question.
I guess what I want to know is how the following options would change expected value.
Here's the question:
I have two options. Assume the payout on winning is exactly the same for each option.
1. Invest/wager $300 with odds of 1:263
2. Invest/wager $200 with odds of 1:450
I can choose to either take option 1 or take both.
Am I correct that if I want to get the most value for my money I should take option 1 only? Or is it better to make both wagers?
I keep running myself into a wall of confusion trying to combine the odds and the money and figure out what's better.
Thanks in advance!
Long way to go and a short time to get there.
Join Date: May 2012
Posts: 19,410
You take neither bet since the payout is not given.
Join Date: Aug 2015
Posts: 5,678
Without knowing the payout you can’t know whether or not each bet is profitable, although you can tell which one is better.
EV1 = P-263*300
EV2 = P-450*200
Take bet 1 if the payout is $78900 or more. Take bet 2 if the payout is $90000 or more. Bet 1 is always better than bet 2.
This is only considering EV. In practice factors like bankroll and opportunity cost may matter.