Quote:
Originally Posted by alari
those odds are bigger than I expected, you sure you've calculated correctly?
BruceZ is pretty much ALWAYS correct.
If you would like a semi-intuitive way of verifying these odds, how about...
There are 48 cards left, and 4 cards need to hit the board, so their are 44 non-trip/quad cards.
Lets say the first card can be any non-trip card: 44/48
...and the second card has to be one of 4 cards out of 47: 4/47
...and the third card has to be one of 3 cards out of 46: 3/46
...and the turn has to be one of 2 cards out of 45: 2/45
...and the river has to be the last card: 1/44
So multiply these up we get 1/194580
But the first card doesn't have to be the blank... it can be in five different spots. So divide the odds by 5...
And you get 1/38916.
If you don't understand either BruceZ's answer or mine... then I can't help you.