Quote:
Originally Posted by Simm0nS777
Hello! We play the prop bet in our home game where you pick 3 cards (for example, I pick Q, 7, 2 and my friend picks A, T, 4) in the deck and if your card comes up you win a set dollar amount. If two come up you win double etc.
My question is, are certain cards better to pick than others? My initial reaction says no since all cards have equal opportunity of hitting the board. But, does any change in math come into play to suggest that you're more likely to see flops when players are holding higher cards which could lead to a higher probability of a lower flop? Meaning that picking three cards like 2, 3, 4 would be a better choice to obtain a small edge?
Thanks!
I think there was once a thread on 2p2 where people set out to prove that Pokerstars RNG was legit. One of the things they counted was how often some cards are seen on the flop, and higher cards were less seen, an ace being the least likely card to be seen on the flop. I don't have the will to search for the thread, you'll have to look it up yourself if you want.
This makes sense, imagine 2 hands like this: everyone has junk, everyone just folds and no flop is seen. The other hand players hold better cards and they put some money in preflop, after that the flop is seen and it's harder for high cards to come out since players already hold some of them probably.
So yeah, for your question, lower cards would be a better choice to pick.
