Quote:
Originally Posted by Chesapeake71
For clarification it is an even money bet and made before any cards are dealt or known.
Thanks to Fog of War and madlex for real math answers.
I was dividing 12/52 (.23) + 12/51 (23.5) + 12/50 (.24) = 70.5 and knew that was way to high. I guess that's why I didn't pass Algebra II back in 1970.
Never offer a picker even money, conversely gladly take even money as a picker.
You posed a wagering query, not a math puzzle.
The real math answers assume away that a flop is conditional on the cards held by at least two players. A picker "knows" a flop is a condition of the prop bet running, which should influence his choice of likely flop cards away from Aces and Kings for starters.
It also matters how many players are dealt in pre-flop, as the more players, the more likely that two low cards will pair up, inducing one player without high cards to see a flop. OTOH, a heads-up or short-handed table likely sees more flops containing high cards than a full ring table, as more mid-range hands are flop-worthy by players involved.
Those "real math answers" accordingly do not go far enough in stating the degree to which a correct pick is likely. If we accept that a flop is required for the prop bet to be live action, then the picker should go with cards unlikely to induce a flop happening.
Can anyone do the math analysis ? Fair wagering odds may even be as high as 3-2 in favor of the picker.
Keeping in mind at least two players will need hands that would see a flop, thus removing 2 - 4 of such "flop-generating" cards from the pool yet to flop. For sake of discussion, let's remove Aces and Kings from the picker's selection range among the pool yet to flop.
That is probably a significant increase in the picker edge. The cards in the sub-range of 2 - Q are on average more likely than the "real math answer" to actually flop than are either an Ace or King.
Last edited by Gzesh; 02-25-2019 at 06:51 PM.