probability of winning with KK or AA - Gambling and Probability

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probability of winning with KK or AA

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07-18-2010 , 01:25 PM

p0oint

centurion

Join Date: Jun 2010 Posts: 191

Hello,

Here are the player's hands:

1st player: KKs or AAs
2nd : AJs
3rd: T6o

Now Poker Stove says that the probability of winning for KK only is: 56.913%
for AA only: 74.079%

My question is: when poker stove calculates KKs or AAs for 1st player, does it take 50% of time KKs and 50% for AAs?

In this case the probability would be 50%*56% + 50%*74%=65%

but the actual value that poker stove gives is 62%.

Where is the error?

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07-18-2010 , 01:36 PM

RustyBrooks

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 24,647

Quote:

Originally Posted by p0oint

My question is: when poker stove calculates KKs or AAs for 1st player, does it take 50% of time KKs and 50% for AAs?

No, it doesn't, because the proportion between AA and KK, if they're selected randomly, wouldn't be 50% here, because there's an A dead. Therefore there are twice as many KK combos and AA combos (there are 6 KK combos and only 3 AA combos)

Quote:

In this case the probability would be 50%*56% + 50%*74%=65%

but the actual value that poker stove gives is 62%.

So then this would be something like
.67*56 + .33*74 = 61.94 which is about 62%

Note that pokerstove doesn't really do it "this way", instead it just runs through all the combos that each person can have and simulates all the boards that could go with those.

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07-19-2010 , 05:32 AM

p0oint

centurion

Join Date: Jun 2010 Posts: 191

Thank you very much for the explanation. How can I missed that?

Also now I understand that actually poker stove takes every combo and calculates the winning hands.

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07-19-2010 , 11:31 AM

spadebidder

Actually Shows Proof

Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 7,905

Quote:

Originally Posted by p0oint

Also now I understand that actually poker stove takes every combo and calculates counts the winning hands.

fyp

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