Probability of TT < 88 aipf twice (2 runouts) - Gambling and Probability

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Probability of TT < 88 aipf twice (2 runouts)

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03-04-2015 , 07:54 PM

BLUEberLEEZ

centurion

Join Date: Jul 2009 Posts: 198

You have TT. You get it in vs 88 allin pre and agree to run it twice. What are the odds of losing both with TT?

Thanks in advance---

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03-04-2015 , 08:02 PM

goktrenks

adept

Join Date: Jul 2014 Posts: 855

considering round numbers that TT is 80% favorite over 88 then 1/5*1/5=1/25 or 4% is the chance of losing both with TT

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03-04-2015 , 08:07 PM

BLUEberLEEZ

centurion

Join Date: Jul 2009 Posts: 198

thanks

was hoping to get a more precise answer considering the majority of the time villain winning both is contingent on villain having flopped a set on runout 1 (and odds of villain winning runout 2 are approximately halved)

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03-04-2015 , 08:53 PM

whosnext

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 6,733

if you want a precise answer, what are the suits? (2, 1, or 0 overlap)

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03-04-2015 , 08:55 PM

BLUEberLEEZ

centurion

Join Date: Jul 2009 Posts: 198

I'd be curious how much of a difference it would make if all suits overlapped (ThTc vs 8h8c), but let's assume none overlap for simplification

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03-04-2015 , 08:55 PM

isplashcranberrys

old hand

Join Date: May 2011 Posts: 1,390

Quote:

Originally Posted by goktrenks

considering round numbers that TT is 80% favorite over 88 then 1/5*1/5=1/25 or 4% is the chance of losing both with TT

this can't be right...doesn't 88 have half the outs the second run...The answer has to be less than 4%.

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03-04-2015 , 09:58 PM

goktrenks

adept

Join Date: Jul 2014 Posts: 855

Sure,I accounted as two independent events, I didn't realize he was asking about run it twice.

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03-05-2015 , 12:04 AM

whosnext

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 6,733

I tried to estimate these probs using a poker odds calculator:

- With 0 suits in common, 88 will win both around 2.5%

- With 1 suit in common, 88 will win both around 2.4%

- With 2 suits in common, 88 will win both around 2.2%

These are only estimates so nobody should be hesitant to post other answers.

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