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Probability in roulette Probability in roulette

03-12-2018 , 08:32 AM
We went to casino last weekend, and I'm just curious: Is it possible to beat roulette somehow? We've tried martingale strategy.
Just in case you don't know what is this system about:
The player bets $1 and wins $2. The net winnings are $1.
The player bets $1 and loses. Then he bets $2 and wins $4. The player bet $3 in total and won $4. The net winnings are $1.
The player bets $1 and loses. Subsequently he bets $2, $4, $8, $16, $32, $64, $128, $256 and loses all of these bets. Then the player bets $512 and wins. The total bets were $1023 and the player won $1024. The net winnings are $1.
https://casino.guru/roulette-scam-strategies

So let's say I start with 1000 units. Win is 18/37 and lose is 19/37.
With this system I can't lost more than 9 times in row:
(19/37)^9 = 0.0025 = 0.25%
This probability means that statistically, 1 of roughly 402 Martingale cycles will result in losing 9 bets in a row, causing the player to be unable to place another bet.
So my question is: do you think this system is good? And what chance to win do I have if I bet the same on the same color all the time?
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03-12-2018 , 09:32 AM
How do you post a link to an article about how you can't beat roulette, that explains why martingaling doesn't work, and then ask whether martingaling works?
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03-12-2018 , 09:57 AM
Perhaps he has an infinite bankroll...

To answer the OP - definitely this system is a good one for you to use. Use it every day for a month and report back with your findings.
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03-12-2018 , 04:11 PM
Its amazing how any of these anti martingale articles mislead by not pointing out that it would be a winning strategy if you are a slight favorite on each bet.
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03-12-2018 , 04:27 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Artom242
We went to casino last weekend, and I'm just curious: Is it possible to beat roulette somehow?
yes
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03-12-2018 , 05:04 PM
Cool. Turn pro and make millions then. Best thing is you can probably openly tell the casino your strategy in advance and they will help you do it quicker. No need to let us know how it goes, we will read about your success in the newspapers.


Quote:
Originally Posted by David Sklansky
Its amazing how any of these anti martingale articles mislead by not pointing out that it would be a winning strategy if you are a slight favorite on each bet.
What betting strategy is not a winning one if you are a slight favorite on each bet?
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03-12-2018 , 05:53 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Artom242
And what chance to win do I have if I bet the same on the same color all the time?
The same as if you alternate colors every time.
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03-12-2018 , 11:59 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Monteroy
Cool. Turn pro and make millions then.
It actually is possible, you will get instabanned though. There was a couple I read about in the early 2000s who realized that by observing the ball in it's early phase you could predict the approximate outcome (say, you could pick the quarter of the wheel the ball is likely to land in). They used a video camera, a transmitter, and a powerful computer. The system did not "pick a winner" but it gave them an edge and they won millions. They were taken to court but since they did not touch or interfere with the machines, it wasn't illegal. But, good luck for them to ever see the inside of a casino again.
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03-13-2018 , 03:06 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RustyBrooks
It actually is possible, you will get instabanned though. There was a couple I read about in the early 2000s who realized that by observing the ball in it's early phase you could predict the approximate outcome (say, you could pick the quarter of the wheel the ball is likely to land in). They used a video camera, a transmitter, and a powerful computer. The system did not "pick a winner" but it gave them an edge and they won millions. They were taken to court but since they did not touch or interfere with the machines, it wasn't illegal. But, good luck for them to ever see the inside of a casino again.
Actually a few of them became so huge in the scientific world that no casino would dare bar them from the premises at this point in time.
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03-13-2018 , 03:08 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RustyBrooks
It actually is possible, you will get instabanned though. There was a couple I read about in the early 2000s who realized that by observing the ball in it's early phase you could predict the approximate outcome (say, you could pick the quarter of the wheel the ball is likely to land in). They used a video camera, a transmitter, and a powerful computer. The system did not "pick a winner" but it gave them an edge and they won millions. They were taken to court but since they did not touch or interfere with the machines, it wasn't illegal. But, good luck for them to ever see the inside of a casino again.
I thought “devices” are illegal?
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03-13-2018 , 06:48 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RustyBrooks
It actually is possible, you will get instabanned though. There was a couple I read about in the early 2000s who realized that by observing the ball in it's early phase you could predict the approximate outcome (say, you could pick the quarter of the wheel the ball is likely to land in). They used a video camera, a transmitter, and a powerful computer. The system did not "pick a winner" but it gave them an edge and they won millions. They were taken to court but since they did not touch or interfere with the machines, it wasn't illegal. But, good luck for them to ever see the inside of a casino again.

Definitely. I know a full time roulette dealer and he can pick the quadrant the ball will likely land in (obviously it gets some weird bounces) with it still spinning for a while, and the casinos made sure that there is no betting well before that time.

The guy who said there is a way to win was not suggesting angle shooting in this type of capacity, rather a special insight as to the mathematics of the game which exist only in his mind. Pretty sure Vegas will give him free drinks while indulging his super powers.
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03-13-2018 , 10:03 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RustyBrooks
It actually is possible, you will get instabanned though. There was a couple I read about in the early 2000s who realized that by observing the ball in it's early phase you could predict the approximate outcome (say, you could pick the quarter of the wheel the ball is likely to land in). They used a video camera, a transmitter, and a powerful computer. The system did not "pick a winner" but it gave them an edge and they won millions. They were taken to court but since they did not touch or interfere with the machines, it wasn't illegal. But, good luck for them to ever see the inside of a casino again.
They disconnect me all the time instead of banning me, an exploit companies use all the time.
I am a qualified IT technician, I know it is not my network or computer.
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03-13-2018 , 10:04 AM
Roulette pissed me off so I am going to tell,

Play roulette like poker, only bet when you have a good hand.

Good luck in the odds reversal

Bust them all.
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03-13-2018 , 11:02 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Monteroy
What betting strategy is not a winning one if you are a slight favorite on each bet?


When you are required to make a certain number of bets, with large enough portions of a specific limited bankroll, that normal variance will leave you broke over half the time? Maybe, I am no expert.
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03-13-2018 , 11:43 AM
Yeah, I thought about the "bet everything each time until you lose" approach, but I am not sure I would qualify that as a betting system.

Years ago when Party Casino had a weird bug I used martigaling, but that fit the bug which was the following:

- They gave you a free bonus (ie you use their money) of for instance $100
- You cannot cash out any of that money until you complete the wagering (usually 100x)
- However, if your balance was above the bonus amount at the end of every bet, and you left the table then rejoined - all the extra above the $100 in this case became real money.

Thus if you bet $1 and won $1 on the first hand of blackjack, then left the game, you would now have $100 that was still restricted and $1 that was actual available cash in your account (to use, withdraw etc).

I usually did a $2/5/10/25 type system or sometimes a more conventional 1/2/4/8 type system, and back in those days these casino bonuses were pretty common (the money was not available for use at the poker tables), so it was a nice risk free way to make some extra money, but that was due to a flaw in how they handled money won at the tables.

Note, if you sat with $100 restricted and won say $5 and stayed on the table then lost $5 you would lose the unrestricted (if you had left the table) money first, so it was always correct to close the game whenever you were ahead, get the real money, and go back.

I probably did a hundred of those or more over the years before they fixed that, and I am not sure if I ever actually cleared the wagering to get the restricted money .
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03-13-2018 , 06:43 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by pkdk
They disconnect me all the time instead of banning me, an exploit companies use all the time.
I am a qualified IT technician, I know it is not my network or computer.
Can you hear my eyes rolling from here?
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03-13-2018 , 07:15 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Artom242
We went to casino last weekend, and I'm just curious: Is it possible to beat roulette somehow?
Nope.

Quote:
Originally Posted by pkdk
yes
Oh, this should be good.

Please, tell us more.
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03-13-2018 , 08:05 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bobo Fett
Nope.


Oh, this should be good.

Please, tell us more.
I think you have to start by putting all the results in an ?/? array.
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03-14-2018 , 07:46 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bobo Fett
Nope.


Oh, this should be good.

Please, tell us more.

Play roulette like poker, only bet when you have a good hand.

Good luck in the odds reversal


What more needs to be said? I have just told you all how to play roulette.

I will give a few tips,


1) Good spinners can hit sections on the board

2) Avoid tables with only a few players

3) A good hand example is

0,1,5,27,0,19,


Go have some fun, don't forget BR management, build up a BR and don't gamble.


added- example of a bad hand


8,1,10,19,2,5


Try not to tilt, I end up tilting when they keep disconnecting me.

Last edited by pkdk; 03-14-2018 at 07:57 AM.
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03-14-2018 , 07:58 AM
and you have yet to make money with this system, which would be easy to do if it were that simple. Just scout all the dealers to see who spin "good hands" and make a fortune. Create a team to do so just like the people who did blackjack and video poker teams (granted they actually played games with an edge). With hundreds of casinos and thousands of dealers, you will have no problem coming up with a game plan to attack the live casinos, and the best part is - none of them will "disconnect" you!

If your beliefs are valid then you have all you need to literally make millions, instead of tilting your dozens (if that) of dollars away online. Hell, at least try to sell your "system" alongside the other scam systems people try to sell online. Maybe you can make yourself 50 bucks that way if you find a couple suckers.

All the best.
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03-14-2018 , 08:13 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Monteroy
and you have yet to make money with this system, which would be easy to do if it were that simple. Just scout all the dealers to see who spin "good hands" and make a fortune. Create a team to do so just like the people who did blackjack and video poker teams (granted they actually played games with an edge). With hundreds of casinos and thousands of dealers, you will have no problem coming up with a game plan to attack the live casinos, and the best part is - none of them will "disconnect" you!

If your beliefs are valid then you have all you need to literally make millions, instead of tilting your dozens (if that) of dollars away online. Hell, at least try to sell your "system" alongside the other scam systems people try to sell online. Maybe you can make yourself 50 bucks that way if you find a couple suckers.

All the best.
It is not simple to do, you are correct, I would have to explain a lot more maybe even coach somebody. I have turned roulette into a game similar to poker , I believe it could be +ev for those who's become skilled in the art of playing.
I could also develop a world championship game of roulette poker, it would be awesome to play.

I have tested my game , it does work quite well, I have played for 3 days straight on only $10, on several occasions.
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03-14-2018 , 08:25 AM
Ken Uston made documented millions with his team through advantage play at Blackjack. Bob Dancer made documented millions with his team through advantage play at Video Poker.

In contrast, you claimed to have made undocumented pocket change three times using your "system."

Not sure what else to suggest, but consider taking out loans and advances on credit cards and going to live casinos and using your system to create massive riches for yourself. Only problem will be if your system is not what you believe it to be, but there is no downside to me if you do that, so go for it! Safe to say you will never develop, nor use whatever weird you come up with to make verifiable income from it. Internet rando gonna internet rando, and the best suggestion to you by far is see if you can find a sucker to pay you $50 for your system.

All the best.
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03-14-2018 , 08:33 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Monteroy
Ken Uston made documented millions with his team through advantage play at Blackjack. Bob Dancer made documented millions with his team through advantage play at Video Poker.

In contrast, you claimed to have made undocumented pocket change three times using your "system."

Not sure what else to suggest, but consider taking out loans and advances on credit cards and going to live casinos and using your system to create massive riches for yourself. Only problem will be if your system is not what you believe it to be, but there is no downside to me if you do that, so go for it! Safe to say you will never develop, nor use whatever weird you come up with to make verifiable income from it. Internet rando gonna internet rando, and the best suggestion to you by far is see if you can find a sucker to pay you $50 for your system.

All the best.
My system has took $10 to $2000 in 4 hrs before, and I bet you would not believe I threw the 2k back in practising new things.

The value of the money doesn't really attract me, the insight is my reward.


Anyway enough about roulette from me, I have been inspired to take up online poker again and I am going to start a BR builder playing 45 mans.

Is there a section on this forum I can blog my BR builder?

*

Edit/MH: I see you have started a thread at https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/1...ilder-1706696/, for those who wish to follow it.

Last edited by Mike Haven; 03-14-2018 at 08:43 AM.
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03-14-2018 , 08:41 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by pkdk
My system has took $10 to $2000 in 4 hrs before, and I bet you would not believe I threw the 2k back in practising new things.
I don't believe pretty much anything you say, but even this type of "run" is typical of a degen who gets hot then spews it all back and then rationalizes it after in his head.

Quote:
Originally Posted by pkdk
The value of the money doesn't really attract me, the insight is my reward.
Your ideas will never generate money long term, because they represent zero advantage in the game, so it makes sense that money is not the motivation behind them. You may as well martingale it up.


Quote:
Originally Posted by pkdk
Anyway enough about roulette from me, I have been inspired to take up online poker again and I am going to start a BR builder playing 45 mans.

Is there a section on this forum I can blog my BR builder?
This might amaze you, but a quick search of the forums will show one which has the word Challenges in it. Go as nuts there in a thread you create as you like, and good luck in those penny games, although nobody will believe you unless you are open about your user name and opted into sharkscope so the results can be verified. Regardless, it appears the millions in roulette will have to wait.

All the best.
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