Probability of JTs given a J2A board - Gambling and Probability

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Probability of JTs given a J2A board

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08-19-2018 , 08:08 AM

Vancouver

journeyman

Join Date: Jul 2016 Posts: 227

Assuming a BvB situation in a game of NLHE 9 handed, how do I calculate the probability of my opponent holding any suited JT combination if there is one J on the flop?

Thanks

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08-19-2018 , 04:52 PM

statmanhal

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 4,987

Assuming you don't have a jack or ten and the other flop cards are not a J or T, the possibilities are

TcX JsTs JdTd JhTh

assuming the flop J is a club. That's 49 combos so

Pr = 49/(47*23) = 4.53%

One further assumption is that villain saw the flop with any two cards. I have a simulation program that can get the result given villain's top % calling range, so ask if of interest.

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08-19-2018 , 08:01 PM

Vancouver

journeyman

Join Date: Jul 2016 Posts: 227

Quote:

Originally Posted by statmanhal

I understand how we get the denominator of 1081 but how do we arrive at the numerator of 49?

Very interested in the simulation by the way, definitely.

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08-19-2018 , 09:02 PM

statmanhal

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 4,987

TcX 46 x cards

JsTs JdTd JhTh 1 combo each = 3

46+3=49

If you want to assume a villain calling range I will run a simulation.

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08-21-2018 , 11:58 AM

browni3141

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Join Date: Aug 2015 Posts: 5,678

Quote:

Originally Posted by statmanhal

TcX 46 x cards

JsTs JdTd JhTh 1 combo each = 3

46+3=49

If you want to assume a villain calling range I will run a simulation.

What is this Tcx for?

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08-21-2018 , 01:33 PM

statmanhal

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 4,987

Ten of clubs and any other card in the remaining deck

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08-21-2018 , 01:51 PM

browni3141

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2015 Posts: 5,678

Quote:

Originally Posted by statmanhal

Ten of clubs and any other card in the remaining deck

I know what it means, but not why you are including those combos in your calculation.

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08-21-2018 , 11:22 PM

statmanhal

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 4,987

Quote:

Originally Posted by browni3141

I know what it means, but not why you are including those combos in your calculation.

Oh, should have realized you knew the lingo. Sorry about that.

I lassumed OP meant JTs including 0 or 1 flop card.

Of course if he meant only hole cards, then the number of successful cases is only 3.

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