Hi, is it possible to calculate the likelihood of Hero going on a rush at some point during a typical live tournament day?

So...

If a live typical mtt day consists of 250 hands

And there is a 10% chance of Hero receiving a 'desired hand' in any of those hands (the precise definition of 'desired hand' isn't important)

What is the probability of Hero receiving a cluster of desired hands at some point in the day? For example:
Mild rush: 5 or more 'desired hands' in ANY continuous sequence of 20 hands during that 250 hand mtt day
Super orbit: 4 or more 'desired hands' in ANY continuous sequence of 9 hands during the 250 hand mtt day


Note that I'm not asking for the probability of x desired hands in a sequence of y hands - which could I believe be calculated with a binomial probability calculator. I'm looking for that extra step that allows the rush to appear at any point during the mtt day.

Any help much appreciated, and I hope I'm not overlooking some blindingly obvious solution

/oldsilver

Short response.. I'do longer one later

One MTT is luck/ skill.. 75% luck? Note this is 1 tournament

You mentioned premium hand... But there's also races

Both are binominal.... Say AA and KK are luck... I think 0.9%. Call it 1%

250 hands

https://stattrek.com/online-calculator/binomial

Zero =8%.. 1 through 3 = 20-25% each... 4_= 13%... 89% cumulative prob to 4 (inclusive)

2) races... Late vs early- mid... Late = tons of races.. I do 6 races (doesn't include all late races). 50%. Sometimes 60%, sometime 40% but average 50%

6 for 6 = 1.5%... 5 = 10%.. 4 = 23.4% but not enough to be considered a hot luck run

And AA or KK, 250 hands...6 or more 4%....7 or more 1.4%

Average = n times p

Stdev= sqrt (n x p x (1-p) )