The Poker Tracker 4 Overall Luck Bell Curve violates "The law of large numbers" - Gambling and Probability

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The Poker Tracker 4 Overall Luck Bell Curve violates "The law of large numbers"

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02-10-2018 , 05:29 AM

SigmaDraconis

stranger

Join Date: Feb 2018 Posts: 1

The Poker Tracker 4 Overall Luck Bell Curve shows if you've been lucky or unlucky playing your set draws, flush draws and straight draws. According to "The law of large numbers" (probability theory) you should flop set in almost exactly 10.8% of your attempts. In 11.76% of the times you held a pocket pair you should have flopped a set or better if the number of attempts was many. Over 10'000 hands all of the three lines in the bell curve chart should be at the very dead center. If they're not, the game is rigged and not based on random cards.

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02-14-2018 , 01:29 PM

RustyBrooks

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 24,647

10,000 hands is not enough, unless you mean 10,000 hands of pairs. In 10k hands, you should expect to get a pair about 590 times. If you're supposed to flop a set 11.7% or more, then you should expect that to have happened about 69 times.

There's about a 20% chance that you'd see more than 75 or less thn 63 which is about a 10% range in either direction.

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