From the screen shot of the spreadsheet, the 2000 buy-ins assures no bankruptcy if you are playing 2000 tournaments and you don’t cash in every one. A silly approach to bankroll management. Think about it – if you were playing $50 MTT’s, you need a bankroll of $100,000!
Most bankruptcy analyses, assume you can live with a low but not 0 risk of run, say somewhere in the neighborhood of 3 to 5%.
For some time now, I’ve been sitting on a draft book containing 64 hold’em tables and analyses. One of the tables addresses your question for a STT SNG. It determines the risk of ruin (bankrupt probability) for a specified bankroll. Here is a copy of the applicable section without the fancy table formatting or accompanying graph..
Table 50. SnG: Bankrupt % (ROR) vs. Buy-Ins
Here we present the probability of going bankrupt for a specific tournament, namely a 9 man sit’n’go with a payout structure of 50/30/20. The bankrupt risk is for 500 tournaments. The buy-in = prize pool + fee is $10+$1 and it is assumed that is achieved with equal placing in 1st, 2nd and 3rd. We show the results for ROIs of 10%, 15% and 20%. It is seen that to have a less than 5% risk of ruin with a 10% ROI, a bankroll of more than 30 buy-ins is required, whereas this reduces to about half as many buy-ins with a 20% ROI. It is noted that the placing distribution determines the profit standard deviation, which is a factor that affects how often you bust. For example, with ROI= 20% and 15 buy-ins, ROR =7.3%. If the cashing player always finishes in the same place, say always 3rd, the risk of ruin becomes essentially 0.
SnG: Bankrupt % vs. Buy-Ins
9 Man 50/30/20 $10-$1 Equal Placing- 1,2,3
| Probability | of Going | Bankrupt | |
# Buy-In | $ Bankroll | ROI=10% | ROI=15% | ROI=20% |
1 | 11 | 91.2% | 87.5% | 83.4% |
5 | 55 | 62.9% | 51.3% | 41.8% |
10 | 110 | 39.4% | 26.3% | 17.4% |
15 | 165 | 24.5% | 13.4% | 7.3% |
20 | 220 | 15.1% | 6.9% | 3.0% |
25 | 275 | 9.3% | 3.5% | 1.9% |
30 | 330 | 5.6% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
35 | 385 | 3.4% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
40 | 440 | 2.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
45 | 495 | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
Example: With a 15% ROI, the chance you will go bankrupt within 500 tournaments if your bankroll is 30 buy-ins is 1.8%.