Hello! not exactly a probability question but I like this forum a lot and I'm sure some of you can help me understand this:

I'm comparing stats of two different players, I'm looking at their stats in 3-bet pots with them as 3-bettors.

Player 1 3bets around 10% of hands and wins 240bb/100 in 3-bet pots
Player 2 3 bets around 4% of hands and wins 350bb/100 in 3-bet pots


Obviously Player 2 3-bets much less, if he would only 3-bet AA his winrate would probably be even higher. I would now like to figure out whos 3-betting strategy is better. By which criteria can I tell if not the winrate?

I don’t think this is a very meaningful question.

If you calculated profit over an equal number of dealt hands, say 1000, P1 in 100 3-bet hands earns 240bb and P2 in 40 3-bet hands earns 144bb. But, what about all the hands they didn’t 3-bet. P2 might be better, right? And isn’t criteria for not 3-betting part of a 3-bet strategy?

I just tried breaking it up into all other possible situations to compare their winrates but if I do that and add up all the winrates the result is far from their overall winrates, I dont know why. P2 performs way better in most spots but their overall winrate is almost identical, which is why I'm trying to figure out in which aspects they perform better but I must be making a mistake.

I dont know how P2 can be winning a lot more in 3bet pots and coldcalled pots while their overall winrate is almost the same. It must be due to P2 folding more preflop and therefore losing more to blinds but that's not really the result I'm getting If I filter for situations where hero folded preflop:



Is that a bug or do I misunderstand something: How can his overall winrate be -15bb/100 in that scenario. Maybe the wrong place to ask, I should maybe ask the HM2 support but I didnt see it going that route when I opened the thread.

I don't think it is really an answerable question. Surely, player 1 wins more in 3-bet pots than player 2 does (i.e., P1 wins 2.4bb in 10% of hands, or 0.24bb/100, P2 wins 3.5bb in 4% of hands, or 0.14bb/100).

You could roughly compare if you knew player 2's winrate with the next 6% of hands (the top of his calling range) but even that doesn't account for differences in play after the flop.

This seems pretty obviously wrong, doesn't it? How can you win money when folding pre?