Open Side Menu Go to the Top
Register
Please Check My Hands Dealt Math Please Check My Hands Dealt Math

12-03-2020 , 02:49 PM


Count: How Many times Dealt specific hand
Even: How many times I should have been dealt that hand
Per: How often I am being dealt that hand (green = HOT , red = not)
Sample Size: Hands Played
Odds to 1: This is how often I think these are supposed to be dealt

I just want to make sure I got this right. If I am running this bad I can justify playing on. If I just suck I will move down.

Bonus PT4 Question: How do I filter for matching my hole cards to the flop cards with any non paired hand? If you filter for 1 pair AQ on 773 is a pair. If you filter for using 1 of your hole cards AK on A33 is not 1 pair.

Bonus Question #2: Is there a software that already does this? And includes flopping pairs, sets, etc.
Please Check My Hands Dealt Math Quote
12-03-2020 , 05:15 PM
The AQo can’t be right. Typo? 283 is too low to reasonably happen by chance.
Please Check My Hands Dealt Math Quote
12-03-2020 , 05:22 PM
Your pair odds are all off by 1 after rounding, eg a specific pair is 220:1 (which is equivalent to a fraction of 1/221).

It's best to wait til the end before rounding:
JJ+ is 1/55.25 so Even = 624
22-TT is 1/24.56 so Even = 1405

It looks like you accidentally counted suited combos for AKo and AQo. It should only be 12 combos each, so the odds are 109.5 to 1 and Even=312.

AKs and AQs are each Even=104.

I'm not sure what you did for AQ+ but it should be 32 combos, so a little over 40:1 and Even=832.

For suited broadways, Even=1040 and the "Per" almost exactly matches the expectation of 33.15
Please Check My Hands Dealt Math Quote
12-03-2020 , 05:28 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by browni3141
The AQo can’t be right. Typo? 283 is too low to reasonably happen by chance.
My binomial calculator says there's a 5% chance of getting 283 or fewer AQo's in 34492 hands.

(But if OP's odds of 82:1 were right then yes it would be a different story.)
Please Check My Hands Dealt Math Quote
12-04-2020 , 12:42 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by heehaww
My binomial calculator says there's a 5% chance of getting 283 or fewer AQo's in 34492 hands.

(But if OP's odds of 82:1 were right then yes it would be a different story.)
I took OPs numbers for granted. You’re right.
Please Check My Hands Dealt Math Quote
12-04-2020 , 05:20 PM
First, thank you everyone for helping me out.

I did wait until the end for rounding but my Odds were off.

Fixed:
JJ+
22-TT
Suited Broadways

AQ+ I just added the 4 columns below it together.

Quote:
Originally Posted by heehaww
AKs and AQs are each Even=104.
For this I made it 332.33 in the odds to 1. Even is now 103.788...or 104.

After better guided googling...

You have taught a person how to fish. I found a percent to odds calculator and used my trusty equilab to get a percent of each hand/range.

Which now I realize I could have just put the multiplied the Sample size by that percentage. Damn I'm old and slow LOL.

Any who, again thank you and updated...

Please Check My Hands Dealt Math Quote
12-04-2020 , 06:30 PM
It's still mostly wrong, but the mistakes are more minor now. Your odds column is inconsistent, sometimes listing the "1 in n" denominator and other times listing the "n to 1" odds. You're using it as a fraction in the Even calculation, so perhaps just rename it accordingly.

The chance of AA is 1 in 221 exact, not 221.22. Each # in this column is simply 1326/(hand combos).

Any pair is 1/17 exact, so your Even was right the first time (2029 rounded).

AKo is 1/110.5 (whereas the odds are 109.5 to 1), so Even is 312.145

You have some other wrong ones too. Reread the Even figures I listed before.
Please Check My Hands Dealt Math Quote
12-05-2020 , 07:43 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by heehaww
It's still mostly wrong
Yup!!! but now I think I have it. I reworked the entire thing and now rather than going by %s or what not it is done by combos of 1326. (See Formula) This seems like it should be exact no matter what.



Thank you again!
Please Check My Hands Dealt Math Quote
12-05-2020 , 07:56 AM
Now it looks good.

I assume "suited broad" is actually just suited letter cards? That would yield 24 combos like you said, and make your observed count reasonable. (Whereas there are 40 combos if you include tens as a broadway card.)
Please Check My Hands Dealt Math Quote
12-05-2020 , 11:14 AM
Suited Browadways with out Ax hands. I figured including those there is a bit redundant.
Please Check My Hands Dealt Math Quote

      
m