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 04-16-2018, 06:41 AM #1 Natalino1978 stranger   Join Date: Apr 2018 Posts: 4 Optimal strategy to minimize risk Hello everyone! I am an Italian university student who is conducting a scientific research on the game of poker; to be precise I'm trying to do a risk analysis on the No Limit Texas Holdem. The goal is to find a strategy that provides rational solutions during the game. The specialty that I would like to focus on is that of Sit&Go 6max or 9max. Any good soul would be willing to pass me a sample of 300000/400000 hands played on this type of game to make a fairly accurate analysis? I would be very grateful! Have a nice day. I specify that this research will most likely be my degree thesis; it all depends on whether I will be able to have this amount of data listed above. Also, once I graduate, I am willing to provide all my research. P.s. Sorry for my bad English Natalino1978
 04-16-2018, 06:45 AM #2 Natalino1978 stranger   Join Date: Apr 2018 Posts: 4 Optimal strategy to minimize risk Hello everyone! I am an Italian university student who is conducting a scientific research on the game of poker; to be precise I'm trying to do a risk analysis on the No Limit Texas Holdem. The goal is to find a strategy that provides rational solutions during the game. The specialty that I would like to focus on is that of Sit&Go 6max or 9max. Any good soul would be willing to pass me a sample of 300000/400000 hands played on this type of game to make a fairly accurate analysis? I would be very grateful! Have a nice day. I specify that this research will most likely be my degree thesis; it all depends on whether I will be able to have this amount of data listed above. Also, once I graduate, I am willing to provide all my research. P.s. Sorry for my bad English Natalino1978
 04-16-2018, 11:59 AM #3 nickthegeek journeyman   Join Date: Sep 2011 Posts: 220 Re: Optimal strategy to minimize risk I bet that you won't receive much attention. As expressed, it just seems that you want some free hands. Also, it's totally unclear why you need hands if you are finding the "rational solutions during the game" (whatever that means). You should also incentivize a cooperation; what's for the guy who cooperates? Why should someone send you any hand at all? Be aware that sharing hands is also forbidden by most poker rooms. Maybe you might find better luck if you give some details about your study.
 04-17-2018, 06:55 AM #5 Natalino1978 stranger   Join Date: Apr 2018 Posts: 4 Re: Optimal strategy to minimize risk My research is based on using risk dominance strategy on poker. It's a mix between Statistics and Game Theory. Now I can not say more than that, but I will provide all the information about the work I am doing. Once I finish my thesis I will provide all the material to him (if there will be someone) who will give me a sample of those dimensions that I mentioned in the initial message. I am also willing to review the type of game to choose from. I accept any advice. I also guarantee maximum discretion and availability. Natalino1978
04-17-2018, 09:33 AM   #6
Didace
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Re: Optimal strategy to minimize risk

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Natalino1978 It's a mix between Statistics and Game Theory.
Tell us about game theory that doesn't use statistics.

 04-17-2018, 09:44 AM #7 Natalino1978 stranger   Join Date: Apr 2018 Posts: 4 Re: Optimal strategy to minimize risk When I talk about statistics I refer to decision trees, to possible simulations with R, ... Natalino1978
 04-17-2018, 06:35 PM #8 CHUCKyaMUCK stranger   Join Date: Apr 2018 Posts: 2 Re: Optimal strategy to minimize risk Well I learnt more in that post than I have in a long time; thanks... BR, Marcus
 Yesterday, 09:43 AM #9 heehaww Pooh-Bah     Join Date: Aug 2011 Location: Tacooos!!!! Posts: 4,299 Re: Optimal strategy to minimize risk Was coon74's post there the entire time? I read the thread yesterday (up to Didace's post and Natalino's reply) and I feel crazy for thinking the timestamp is way off. It's a pretty hard post to miss, being taller than my monitor and all.
Yesterday, 10:13 AM   #10
coon74
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Re: Optimal strategy to minimize risk

Quote:
 Originally Posted by heehaww Was coon74's post there the entire time? I read the thread yesterday (up to Didace's post and Natalino's reply) and I feel crazy for thinking the timestamp is way off. It's a pretty hard post to miss, being taller than my monitor and all.
OP made 2 threads - first in STT Strategy, then in Probability. I and CHUCKyaMUCK responded to the STT thread. Then the threads were merged.

In the hindsight, I should have given a more realistic example, with reasonably large blinds and antes (like 75/150) and accurate Nash equilibrium push/fold ranges; the equity calculation is done the same way there. I'll give such an example if anyone requests it, lol.

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Natalino1978 My research is based on using risk dominance strategy on poker.
Risk dominance is only useful when there's more than one Nash equilibrium. In push-or-fold scenarios, it seems that there's usually 1 equilibrium, to which fictitious play converges quite fast. If we allow calls (limps) or small raises, fictitious play converges slowly, but I'm still not sure if there are ever 2 or more equilibria to select from.

Besides, when you study Nash equilibria, it's useless to consider hands played in real games - most of the real players deviate from Nash equilibria anyway; weak players deviate so much that, actually, it's more worthwhile to assign fixed strategies to all opponents on the basis of population tendencies found in real data (or, for strong regular players, basing on the results given by the commonly used calculators - Holdemresources and ICMizer), and calculate the optimal response to those strategies.

Even if you intend to create a new commercial calculator using risk dominance, it won't sell well in the first year because it will be not more useful for the real games than the current calculators are - most opponents will be playing either irrationally or according to the strategies advised by the current calculators, based on superficial assumptions about bet sizes, not according to the equilibria found by your new calculator. It will take long until most regular players adopt the new calculator, so you have to be patient.

Last edited by coon74; Yesterday at 10:42 AM.

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