Is online poker flawed, fundamentally? - Page 22 - Gambling and Probability

What do you mean that is not a problem? of course it is a problem,

Imagine you are on the sb, as before 100 decks in the crate, imagine all 100 top cards have luckily landed an ace

Your chance of an ace is 100%

Now imagine you are on the big blind

75 of the 2nd cards are aces, you have a 75/100 chance to get an ace again.

Now imagine you are utg

0 of the 3rd cards are aces, you have a 0/100 chance to get an ace,

In simple terms if you are lucky you could pick an ace every pick. If you are unlucky , you could pick a 2 every pick .

Last edited by pkdk; 03-06-2018 at 08:33 PM.

Quote

03-06-2018 , 08:31 PM

#528

King Spew

Just average

Join Date: Apr 2006 Posts: 15,227

That is not a problem.

There is still a normal distribution of cards that will fall to the SB.

Not a problem

Quote

03-06-2018 , 08:41 PM

#529

pkdk

banned

Join Date: Apr 2015 Posts: 689

Quote:

Originally Posted by King Spew

That is not a problem.

There is still a normal distribution of cards that will fall to the SB.

Not a problem

You are completely missing the point. By having multiple decks randomly brought to the table, a player can get streaks of aces etc, they are not getting lucky by the shuffle they are getting lucky by the choice of deck.

win
loss
win
loss
win
loss
win
loss
win
loss
win
loss

I pick 1,3,5,7,9 ,11 see?

If we were in a game my vpip would show high, you would think I was lag and run into a monster.

Last edited by pkdk; 03-06-2018 at 08:48 PM.

Quote

03-06-2018 , 08:43 PM

#530

King Spew

Just average

Join Date: Apr 2006 Posts: 15,227

Not a problem

There is still a normal distribution of cards that will fall to the SB.

Not a problem

Quote

03-06-2018 , 08:47 PM

#531

King Spew

Just average

Join Date: Apr 2006 Posts: 15,227

Quote:

Originally Posted by pkdk

You are completely missing the point. By having multiple decks randomly brought to the table, a player can get streaks of 72o, they are not getting lucky by the shuffle they are getting lucky by the choice of deck.

fyp

Quote

03-06-2018 , 08:53 PM

#532

Last Laugh

grinder

Join Date: Apr 2014 Posts: 429

Quote:

Originally Posted by pkdk

You have exactly the same odds of getting a streak of wins using one deck and a randomizing shuffle.

Quote

03-06-2018 , 08:56 PM

#533

King Spew

Just average

Join Date: Apr 2006 Posts: 15,227

Because you keep editing your reply

Quote:

Originally Posted by pkdk

If we were in a game my vpip would show high, you would think I was lag and run into a monster.

And you would overplay a TP type hand and lose. Usually in a game of NL, TP type hands win a little and lose a lot. I don't mind being the underdog when I get paid so well when the flop hits me.

Quote

03-06-2018 , 08:57 PM

#534

pkdk

banned

Join Date: Apr 2015 Posts: 689

Quote:

Originally Posted by King Spew

Not a problem

There is still a normal distribution of cards that will fall to the SB.

Not a problem

You keep saying it is not a problem, it is a fundamental flaw. The game of Texas holdem is based on finite time and (1/52)/t , it is not based on quantum leaping where your entire probability allocation of aces over time comes in several hands leaving you card dead for hours there after. You can also have streaks of 7/2 like you pointed out and in a bad way can be a repeat occurrence over time online because simply the deck you get allocated to your table.

Quote

03-06-2018 , 08:58 PM

#535

King Spew

Just average

Join Date: Apr 2006 Posts: 15,227

Nope

There is still a normal distribution of cards that will fall to the SB.

Not a problem

edit: I will add.... because the deal is a normal random distribution (the top card and all that follow of the 51 remaining cards in the deck on each of the bazillion decks)... it is the reason that poker is a fair game.

Last edited by King Spew; 03-06-2018 at 09:04 PM.

Quote

03-06-2018 , 09:00 PM

#536

whosnext

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Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 6,733

A coin flip is 50/50 even after it is already flipped if you don't know whether it landed heads or tails.

Expand to as many coin flips as your imagination will allow.

Quote

03-06-2018 , 09:04 PM

#537

pkdk

banned

Join Date: Apr 2015 Posts: 689

Quote:

Originally Posted by King Spew

Because you keep editing your reply

And you would overplay a TP type hand and lose. Usually in a game of NL, TP type hands win a little and lose a lot. I don't mind being the underdog when I get paid so well when the flop hits me.

I try to not overplay any hand, but for me it depends whats happening and what stage in a tourney it is. I access every new situation as it comes.

I can play any style, meaning nit, tag, lag etc and my own invention slag.

I like to throw in a bit of slag when I have not had a good hand for ages, gets my vpip up to spring the trap on poor unsuspecting multi tabler's with trackers when I do get the good hand.

Quote

03-06-2018 , 09:05 PM

#538

pkdk

banned

Join Date: Apr 2015 Posts: 689

Quote:

Originally Posted by whosnext

A coin flip is 50/50 even after it is already flipped if you don't know whether it landed heads or tails.

Expand to as many coin flips as your imagination will allow.

I do not disagree with that .

Quote

03-06-2018 , 09:06 PM

#539

King Spew

Just average

Join Date: Apr 2006 Posts: 15,227

Lets whip em out and get a yardstick....OK, maybe a ruler for you. This is not a strategy area of 2+2 so quit this line.

Not a problem

There is still a normal distribution of cards that will fall to the SB.

Quote

03-06-2018 , 09:09 PM

#540

pkdk

banned

Join Date: Apr 2015 Posts: 689

Quote:

Originally Posted by whosnext

A coin flip is 50/50 even after it is already flipped if you don't know whether it landed heads or tails.

Expand to as many coin flips as your imagination will allow.

However I flip a coin 10 times and secretly write down the results

?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?

How many times landed heads and how many times landed tails?

heads/10?

tails/10?

added - I am not asking you what is the chance of an individual value being heads or tales, I am going to ask you

What is the chance of an heads from the ten drawn values?

Last edited by pkdk; 03-06-2018 at 09:18 PM.

Quote

03-06-2018 , 09:10 PM

#541

pkdk

banned

Join Date: Apr 2015 Posts: 689

Quote:

Originally Posted by King Spew

Your ignoring the choice of decks, you are skipping from x to x and not at all considering y, the 100 top cards.

Quote

03-06-2018 , 09:27 PM

#542

Lego05

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Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 24,919

Quote:

Originally Posted by pkdk

However I flip a coin 10 times and secretly write down the results

?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?

How many times landed heads and how many times landed tails?

heads/10?

tails/10?

added - I am not asking you what is the chance of an individual value being heads or tales, I am going to ask you

What is the chance of an heads from the ten drawn values?

50%

Quote

03-06-2018 , 09:29 PM

#543

pkdk

banned

Join Date: Apr 2015 Posts: 689

Try this

Quote:

In probability theory and statistics, the cumulative distribution function (CDF, also cumulative density function) of a real-valued random variable X, or just distribution function of X, evaluated at x, is the probability that X will take a value less than or equal to x.

My notion is an extension of this. Y will take a value less, equal to, or greater than to x.

Quote

03-06-2018 , 09:30 PM

#544

pkdk

banned

Join Date: Apr 2015 Posts: 689

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lego05

50%

No, try again.

Quote

03-06-2018 , 09:32 PM

#545

24our

journeyman

Join Date: Dec 2017 Posts: 227

lol slag. try *** imo better strat for ur personality type

Quote

03-06-2018 , 09:39 PM

#546

pkdk

banned

Join Date: Apr 2015 Posts: 689

0/10
1/10
2/10
3/10
4/10
5/10
6/10
7/10
8/10
9/10
10/10

does not equate to 50%. I am asking for an answer out of ten.

Quote

03-06-2018 , 09:40 PM

#547

Lego05

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Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 24,919

Quote:

Originally Posted by pkdk

No, try again.

50% is right. Sorry.

Instead of trying to do the math to figure it out, why you don't you just go flip 10 coins, not look at them and then reach out and draw one and record whether it is heads or tails? Do that 5 million times or so and see how many times you draw heads.

Quote

03-06-2018 , 09:44 PM

#548

pkdk

banned

Join Date: Apr 2015 Posts: 689

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lego05

You are not answering the question I asked. How many of the 10 results are a head?

?/10

Quote

03-06-2018 , 10:02 PM

#549

Bobo Fett

Carpe Diem

Join Date: May 2006 Posts: 56,896

Quote:

Originally Posted by pkdk

You got that bit right.

That's all you've got? I actually proved that was incorrect - care to show where you think I went wrong?

Quote

03-06-2018 , 10:13 PM

#550

Lego05

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Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 24,919

Quote:

Originally Posted by pkdk

You are not answering the question I asked. How many of the 10 results are a head?

?/10

That isn't what you asked. Or actually I think you asked this also, but it isn't the question I was answering; I bolded the question I was answering.

The question you asked that I was answering was:

Quote:

Originally Posted by PKDK

What is the chance of an heads from the ten drawn values?

The answer to this question is 50%.

This:

Quote:

Originally Posted by PKDK

How many of the 10 results are a head?

is a different question. It is not possible to answer this question without looking at the coins.

Last edited by Lego05; 03-06-2018 at 10:19 PM.