pkdk, I don't think we're going to get anywhere on the box scenario. You can't get past the fact that taking out boxes randomly in no way affects the probability of getting a prize, that's fine. I can't think of any more ways to convince you of the obvious truth. But if it will somehow help, I'll give you the answer you already know - of course we have no idea what the odds are of getting a prize in a single box when the only information is that there will or won't be a prize. So, go ahead with the punch line.
In the meantime, perhaps we can make some progress on an earlier line of discussion, and this post of mine that you didn't respond to (which I understand, as there have been many threads to this conversation):
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bobo Fett
I assume what you're getting at is that the first card dealt from 52 separate decks could have no aces, and it could have 52 aces. But what does that matter? If a deck is shuffled 52 times, it could also have an ace on top 0 times or 52 times. 52 decks shuffled and dealt from once, or 1 deck shuffled and dealt from 52 times - nothing changes.
I believe this is critical to your theory. You have yet to demonstrate how 52 different decks will get you different results than the same deck used 52 times, shuffled after each hand. Of course you can't demonstrate that, because it won't, but I'm interested in understanding how you think it will.
I should add that having looked at your other threads, and your past account, I'd put the troll odds at about 50/50. Which would be pretty lame - who wouldn't be able to troll/level in this thread if they wanted to?