Quote:
Originally Posted by pkdk
You contradicted yourself, you say taking away two boxes does not change anything then in the next ''breathe'' explain the possible changes. Then at the end of paragraph neglect the possible changes and re-insist it is still 50%, completely ignoring any of the now uncertainty you already mentioned.
No. Perhaps I wasn't clear enough. What I was saying was that, in spite of the fact that there could be no prizes in those two boxes, or prizes in both of them, the odds of any one box containing a prize is still 50%.
Look at it another way. Instead of taking two boxes away, what if I make those my picks? Each box I choose has a 50% chance of containing a prize. But 50% doesn't mean I will have 1 prize every time I choose 2 boxes. Sometimes I will have 2, sometimes I will have none. In fact, the four outcomes are: Both have a prize, the first one I choose has a prize, the second I choose has a prize, or neither has a prize. 2, 1, 1, 0. Four draws, on average, would net me 4 prizes, or one prize per draw. Exactly what we'd expect when making 2 draws at a 50/50 opportunity.
Quote:
Originally Posted by pkdk
2 boxes that you no longer know any information about.
Yes, I do. I know there is still a 50/50 chance of each and every box having a prize, including the 2 that you removed.
Quote:
Originally Posted by pkdk
Your only information based on a different situation of having 4 boxes and knowing there is two prizes in the boxes. There is a big difference in having information than having no information.
It's not a different situation - see above.