I've brought this up in the Internet Poker section but I want some genuine discussion on this, I have observed and noted patterns with Ongame regs and fish (since PTR allowed Ongame) and using PTR, it shows some pretty incredible results.

Basically, I've noticed a pattern of strange cycles with the RNG in the sense that regs perform MUCH, MUCH better in the May/June to October/November range, and new players/donks tend to perform much better in the winter months.

I've been tracking the top winners by month each month this year and in the winter months, the top ten lists are filled with casual players on massive heaters, often pure fish players, whereas in the summer, the top winners each month are grinding regs.

The only explanation I can see is that Ongame manipulate the deal or even use house players on cycles to try and maintain their poker economy and stop the regs winning all year.

I now this sounds crazy but my Ongame graph looks the same- high win rate for the summer time, and this past winter I just couldn't win at all, even dropping in stakes I could only just better breaking even.

Here's my post from another thread-

Here's the top ten winners this year at NL20-

Bear in mind the top winners for the year will be grinders with relatively decent volume (I've been looking at the winners per month)-

http://www.pokertableratings.com/ong...search/mujkara

http://www.pokertableratings.com/ong...rch/hanibal131

http://www.pokertableratings.com/ong...arch/Jay_the_K

http://www.pokertableratings.com/ong...arch/AZAZEL191

http://www.pokertableratings.com/ong...arch/w0lv3riNe

http://www.pokertableratings.com/ong...arch/ilovedark

http://www.pokertableratings.com/ong...rch/mcmuffin11

http://www.pokertableratings.com/ong...earch/kinder33

http://www.pokertableratings.com/ong...rch/Iplay4lulz

(I can't get the 10th one cos I've used up my free searches)

From the 9 posted, 8 show much better (up to 4x stronger) win rates from May/June compared to the winter months.

I've studied the top winners by month since PTR allowed Ongame and the trend has been that new accounts and donks do way better in the winter months, and the reg accounts perform much better in the summer months. You can't argue with the results- SOMETHING is wrong here.

My Ongame graph shows up to 11bb/100 win rates over summer months and long break even/can't get anywhere spells in the winter.

These graphs are the top players and show they do eek out small winter profits, but 'something' is preventing them performing like they do in the winter months.

I've looked at NL10-NL30 and the same pattern is observed in the vast majority of the time.

Very difficult to explain this away as variance, what could possibly explain the massive increases in win rate over the summer months- many regs go from breaking even/small winners from Decemeber to April then 4x increase their win rate and often maintain this upto September/October.

Back in Feb, the top winners by month were full of casual, newly created accounts, often the 60/40 type donk, even a few accounts that turned up and won a lot then disappeared after winning at ridiculous amounts.

Yet the summer months show the grinders filling the top winners lists.

PTR is there for everyone to say, please look at the graphs, the pattern is blatant.

regs can't play when they're cold ldo

I';m expecting these kinds of posts, but 30 graphs (top ten winners from 3 stake levels) show a pattern, a cycle.

Make fun all you like but the graphs show this, and for the integrity of the game, it is surely worth looking into?

post a screenshot of your results by month in BB/100 and include number of hands and SD and i'll take a look

oh and make sure it's all at the same stakes

I've posted 10 graphs showing the same trend and if you go into PTR you will see another 20 showing the same thing at NL10 and NL30.

I don't know how to upload pictures as you need to upload them to a site, PTR is there, have a look at the graphs.

From June 2010 to October 2010 my win rates were 3.84bb/100 at NL30, 12.18bb/100 at NL20 and 6.91bb/100 at NL10, 20,000+ at both NL20 and NL30 (massive heater at NL20 when I played) and 70,000+ at NL10.

From Mid way through October to April filters, I started losing at NL20 (running awful, really awful) so played NL10 and NL4, with win rates of 1.19bb/100 and 3.06bb/100 respectively over 70,000+.

I think it was about February when I was tracking Ongame players by PTR and looking at the top winners by month tables, that it was obvious to me the accounts where running in cycles. The top winners tables in the winter were just full of bad players with new accounts. Whereas in the summer, the regs are doing OK again.

I only play 1-2 hours a day of poker as a little bit of side income, the only sites which offers consistent results without extensive variations in my win rate are PP and 888.com.

I understand win rates can deviate massively over 50,000 hand samples, but my results at Ongame are pretty much the same as all the top winners this year at NL10-NL30- namely very difficult for a reg type player to maintain any kind of decent win rate over the winter at these microstakes levels. And there are 30+ graphs showing this to be the case.

They show the top winners by stake this month all have a similar trend- heaters in the summer months and breakeven/small winning/losing during the winter.

PTR is there you to see yourself.

I am also aware my results are meaningless to this thread, I don't know if Suzukishosan is trying to derail me, I'm aware 20,000 hands of NL20 means nothing- before anyone comes in diverting attention ontop this point!!

The point of the thread is this, PTR SHOWS THE TOP WINNERS AT NL10, NL20 AND NL30 PRETTY MUCH ALL SHOW A SIMILAR PATTERN OR CYCLE TO THEIR RESULTS- BIG WINNERS IN THE SUMMER AND NOT WINNING MUCH, EVEN LOSING IN THE WINTER MONTHS.

((just so happens my Ongame results are similar also))

Not trying to de-rail. Was just going to politely point out that those win rates are not statistically different from each other.

I imagine I'd find the same if we had stats for any of these other players.

Regarding the PTR graphs. It's hard to ascertain a trend as the graphs are in $ and the players are changing their stakes. You need a graph in BBs or per stake to see trends properly.

i.e They may have been crushing 2NL in the winter, and then marginally beating 25NL in the summer and it would look like an uptick

Reading the OP, I basically learned that in the summer months regs win more than in the winter months.

The OP claims that the only possible explanation he/she can come up with is that the games are rigged based on time of the year. I could argue that a conclusion shows little though, but I won't. Instead I will offer two small theories explaining such results (that I have not even confirmed for myself yet) that have nothing to do with riggedness. I suspect many more theories could explain these results as well, but I thought it would be nice to give the OP another try at thinking about how his data can be explained. Here they are:

Teachers/Students Play in the Summer
A large proportion of the population have summer months off (students, teachers). That gives them more free time and perhaps more time to play poker. My guess is that regulars play all year round. But, the fish are "biting" more during the summer. So they make more money during the summer because teachers and students are non-professionals and quite frankly most of them suck.

American Football is in the Winter
Another major difference, in the US at least, is that beginning in the Spring-Summer period, there is no American football. I suspect that the typical poker playing American watches American football. When football is on, the typical poker playing American does not play poker, he watches football (I said he because we are talking about the typical player). But when there is no football on, he plays poker. Also, he sucks. So we he plays poker, there is more money for regs.

The graphs are from a table derived from the top winners by 'stake'.

If you look at the overall graphs, you will see the vast majority of the grinding these players do is at the same stake.

Top NL20 winner plays NL20 90% of the time etc.

OK, but one could equally argue fish are more likely to play in the winter as they are in the house more often.

In the summer, we can go play golf or tennis, go down the beach, go on holiday, basically spend more time outdoors.

The difference in win rate on these graphs is like 4x stronger in most cases, I honestly can't think of any natural reasons this is occuring.

And if the play is tougher in the winter as less fish, why are the fish taking their places in the top winner's for the month during the winter? Every month during the winter, at least half of the top ten winners per stake where newly created accounts being played by pure fish running super hot. Surely this would occur in the summer when there are more fish and thus more chance a fish will run hot among that sample?

For this to be the "only" explanation you could come up with, you had to have been "looking" for riggedness. I came up with two explanations and they took 60 seconds.

Depending on your definition of wrong. You seem to be implying that win-rates should be equal across months. Why do you think that should be the case? I certainly don't think win-rates should be equal across days of the week, but I suppose you think the should be equivalent there as well?

Again, your mysterious "something" that is "preventing" players from doing as well.

Sorry, but your post just reads like any other riggie. Filled with "something" is wrong and you "can't argue with results." "Blatant patterns" Take a few minutes and think about the possibility that winners should not expect equal win-rates all year round.

[ ] important discussion

[X] move to rigged thread

4x difference can occur naturally due to variance, even over a large sample.

Much more than 4x will occur randomly when the true win rates are low. I'm sure there are many summer winners who even lost in the winter (and vice versa).

Of course, but why does every single one follow the summer/winter pattern? Have you looked at the graphs?

I'm not making this up, it is what the graphs are showing.

Natural variance could see a 10bb/100 winrate over 60,000 hands become 3bb/100 over another 60,000 hands, but why do these graphs show the heaters all coming in what appears to be a cycle, namely the summer?

The graphs show it, the top 30 winners for NL10 to NL30, it is there for all to see. Why would the 'variance' come at roughly the same time for the grinders- why don't some of the top winners this year win in Jan to April and suffer poor variance in June to September, not one of them shows this. Why not?

Let's put it another way, somebody show me a graph that is vice versa for these stakes, and post a link to PTR.

- Player who plays all year round (essential point if looking at cycles)

- Is in profit

- Has been on big heaters in the winter months

- Has lost/ broke even in the summer months

I have posted 9 graphs from the top ten NL20 winners this month that show 8/9 showing the exact opposite.

Surely someone experienced bad variance in the summer and won over the winter?

IF SOMEBODY CAN LINK A PTR GRAPH SHOWING THIS FOR NL10 TO NL30, FOR A REG PLAYER WHO HAS PUT IN VOLUME OVER BOTH THE WINTER AND THE SUMMER, AND HAS LOST/BROKE EVEN OVER THE SUMMER AND WON THE MAJORITY OF THEIR PROFIT IN THE WINTER, I WILL GLADLY DELETE MY POSTS.

But I doubt anyone will be able to, I've searched to actually find such graph, lots of them show summer heaters, but not the other way around. Seriously.

I'm currently looking at graphs of top winner in microstakes this year at other sites and there is complete apparent randomness to the grpahs-

http://www.pokertableratings.com/par...ch/KlitIstwund

http://www.pokertableratings.com/par...arch/DamageNSK

Two graphs from the top ten list taken completely at random- do not show any kind of pattern at all.

Dude plenty of people just win all year round. no PTR searches left so can't link

why don't we do a prop bet. I'll play on ongame 30NL during the winter and i bet i win at a decent clip say >5bb/100?

You'd have to play all year round to be part of a cycle.

I'd prob bet with you if you signed up to the Ongame network for the first time in the winter you'd win at a decent clip. I'm yet to see a new account ever run bad at any network Perhaps with the exception of FTP where you just run bad full stop haha!

Are you an Ongame player?

I'd gladly bet with anyone who has done well at NL10-NL30 since May/June to now that they won't hardly win at all going into November and through to March/April @ Ongame.

I haven't played online in a few years. I play live poker full-time. I certainly make a better hourly rate in the summer than winter. I don't think it's the card shufflers or the dealers, I think it's the obvious fact that there are more fish in the summer.

Online it's probably not as big/obvious a difference, but I'm sure that explanation is much more likely than a site being rigged.

Interesting. I was going to theorize the other way: in the summer, the fish have a life while grinders stay in the basement. In the winter, fish stay indoors too, so there are more of them online. There's more money for regs, sure, but there's also a better chance by pure force of numbers for some fish to go on a massive heater and hit the leaderboard.

BTW, is there more televised poker on TV at certain times of year? That might also influence fish behaviour. Especially the EPT imo.

But if they all (or an overwhelming majority) differ in the same direction, then that does become statistically significant. The aggregate is effectively a larger sample.

I agree that the OPs data could certainly show a real trend with real reasons, but the network manipulating the deal is like reason 900 to look at for the cause. Not first, lol.