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Odds of Great flop with suited connectors Odds of Great flop with suited connectors

09-24-2018 , 10:28 PM
With 7clubs and 8 clubs, what are odds that I flop at least one of the following:

1. Flop flush
2. Flop straight
3. Flop two pair
4. Flop one pair and straight draw
5. Flop one pair and flush draw
6. Flop straight draw and flush draw
7. Flop trips
8. Flop quads

Thank you in advance
Basically, I'm wondering if I should call a $15 bet for a chance to win $100
Or call a $20 bet to win $100
Odds of Great flop with suited connectors Quote
09-26-2018 , 10:29 PM
I calculated 7 of the 8 things you asked for, and you can see the results below (the straight + flush draw has too many iterations for me to wanna take the time to calculate right now. I might come back to it later, but for now here's the rest).



Someone can double check my work, but I got to 9.4% not including straight + flush draw (although I'd guess that if one pair + fd is 1.6%, then straight + flush draw is probably somewhere in that ballpark).

I don't quite understand your betting question. Is the bet that you put up 15 against 100 to hit one of these flops with 78s? If so, then it looks like you're probably losing a few points, depending on what the straight+fd actually comes in at. Let's just say the latter is 1.6%, bringing your total expected flop pct to 11%. That would mean your EV on the bet would be .11 * 100 + .89 * -15 = -$2.35.

The house always wins.

Last edited by mkind0516; 09-26-2018 at 10:44 PM.
Odds of Great flop with suited connectors Quote
09-29-2018 , 10:34 AM
For the straight draw or flush draw part, if you have 54s to JTs then the chances are:

flop straight draw - ~10%
flop flush draw - ~11%

The other connectors (QJ KQ AK 43 32) are much less.
Odds of Great flop with suited connectors Quote
09-30-2018 , 05:01 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by NewOldGuy
For the straight draw or flush draw part, if you have 54s to JTs then the chances are:

flop straight draw - ~10%
flop flush draw - ~11%

The other connectors (QJ KQ AK 43 32) are much less.
He wanted straight draw + flush draw, not the 2 independently. So imagine all the iterations of like Jc9c2x, Jc9x2c, Jx9c2c, Jc9c3x, and so on.
Odds of Great flop with suited connectors Quote
09-30-2018 , 05:26 PM

https://imgur.com/H1el5NL

AA v 8c7c


so around 8% of the time you will out flop aces
Odds of Great flop with suited connectors Quote

      
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