Odds of flopping quads vs full house holdem
Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 971
Odds of flopping quads vs full house while both holding a pocket pair 8 handed?
Then odds of the turn bringing quads vs quads?
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 4,987
I’m unsure how you want the 8 handed condition to play so I’m going to assume that 2 players have different pairs.
The probability A flops a full house and B flops quads is C(2,1)C(2,2)/C(48,3) = 2*1/17926 = 0.0116% . Double that for switching who gets what to 0.0232%, roughly odds of 8,650 to 1 against.
The probability the full house then gets quads on the turn is 1/45.
The probability both have quads on the turn can be gotten directly from 1/C(48,4) = 0.000514%
Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 971
thanks
witnessed KK v QQ last night
flop QKQ
turn K
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 4,987
Thinking about how many tens/hundreds of thousands of hands are played daily (?), a 1 in 8500 event happens quite frequently. Remember though, the 1 in 8500 number assumes two players have pairs, which makes the probability somewhat smaller, but daily occurrence somewhere is not out of the question.
Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 971
