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Old 04-19-2020, 08:41 AM   #1
seat
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Odds of being dealt a premium

This should be pretty simple I think.
What are the odds of being dealt a premium hand.
1010+ , J10s+ , AJos+

(i know my definition of premium might be low but this seems like a good cutoff.)

I'm asking because I'm trying to get a base understanding of how often someone should be raising preflop. If you're dealt a premium every 8 hands then it would make sense if someone is raising every 8 hands that they're mostly just raising premium hands.

If you see someone raising every 3 hands. You know they're raising a wide range. If you see someone raising only every 20 hands they're only raising JJ or better.

I know you can use a hud to get this information and I do. But i'm looking for a simplified answer.
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Old 04-19-2020, 10:19 AM   #2
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Re: Odds of being dealt a premium

Hints:
Each pair has 6 combos.
Each unpaired hand has 16 combos: 4 suited and 12 offsuit.

Add the combos up and divide by 1326 (or 1225 if you've looked at your own cards).

If Hero has any blockers, you'll have to adjust some of the combo counts.
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Old 04-19-2020, 11:33 AM   #3
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Re: Odds of being dealt a premium

about every 11 hands you will be dealt a premium. so in a 6 max game you can assume someone at the table has been dealt a premium every other hand.
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Old 04-19-2020, 12:03 PM   #4
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Re: Odds of being dealt a premium

Quote:
Originally Posted by seat View Post
about every 11 hands you will be dealt a premium.
That's not what I calculate. What did you do?

As for any of 6 players, that's a different beast but your reasoning is pretty much right.
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Old 04-19-2020, 12:42 PM   #5
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Re: Odds of being dealt a premium

With the OP's ranges, it's about 1 in 16.
At 6 handed that would be about every third deal.

Note that you don't just multiply by 6 to get that, even though it's close in this case.

Last edited by NewOldGuy; 04-19-2020 at 12:48 PM.
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Old 04-19-2020, 12:49 PM   #6
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Re: Odds of being dealt a premium

Quote:
Originally Posted by heehaww View Post
That's not what I calculate. What did you do?

As for any of 6 players, that's a different beast but your reasoning is pretty much right.
i honestly don't know what i did. i just look at the hand matrix and kind of guessed lol. haha i didn't want to spend too much time on this.
i came up with 120 combos and divided 1326 by 120 combos. and came up with 11. so just figured about 1 in 11 times you'll get a premium. but amount of combos might be off.

Quote:
Originally Posted by NewOldGuy View Post
With the OP's ranges, it's about 1 in 16.
At 6 handed that would be about every third deal.

Note that you don't just multiply by 6 to get that, even though it's close in this case.
i think newoldguy did the math and i trust his answer. sounds right. thanks.
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Old 04-19-2020, 03:25 PM   #7
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Re: Odds of being dealt a premium

i realize there's some overlap in counting the ranges but I don't want to put that much effort into this problem
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Old 04-19-2020, 07:02 PM   #8
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Re: Odds of being dealt a premium

Quote:
Originally Posted by seat View Post
i realize there's some overlap in counting the ranges but I don't want to put that much effort into this problem
Tte 3 ranges given have no overlap. There are 82 combos.
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Old 04-20-2020, 10:52 AM   #9
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Re: Odds of being dealt a premium

If AJo and AQo are premium, I would think AJs and AQs also are? Which would mean 90 combos
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Old 04-20-2020, 12:45 PM   #10
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Re: Odds of being dealt a premium

Quote:
Originally Posted by heehaww View Post
If AJo and AQo are premium, I would think AJs and AQs also are? Which would mean 90 combos
I agree that makes sense. I was interpreting his ranges literally as written. He gave the pair range, the suited range, and the offsuit range. So instead of

1010+ J10s+ AJos+

I would have written it as

1010+ J10s+ AJ+

or to avoid any possibility of confusion

1010+ J10s+ AJs+ AJo+

This would increase the frequency to 6.8%
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Old 05-02-2020, 07:16 PM   #11
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Re: Odds of being dealt a premium

Quote:
Originally Posted by NewOldGuy View Post
I agree that makes sense. I was interpreting his ranges literally as written. He gave the pair range, the suited range, and the offsuit range. So instead of

1010+ J10s+ AJos+

I would have written it as

1010+ J10s+ AJ+

or to avoid any possibility of confusion

1010+ J10s+ AJs+ AJo+

This would increase the frequency to 6.8%
Yea i listed pairs, suited combos, then non suited combos.

I guess it would be the same as what you're saying in
Quote:
Originally Posted by NewOldGuy View Post

I would have written it as

1010+ J10s+ AJ+
but now i'm getting confused lol. i don't even know anymore.
i just wanted an approximation anyway. so i think we got that pinned down
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Old 05-22-2020, 08:37 PM   #12
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Re: Odds of being dealt a premium

I'm assuming this is the range OP means, 8.9% which is about one in every 11.3 hands.
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Old 05-22-2020, 10:47 PM   #13
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Re: Odds of being dealt a premium

Quote:
Originally Posted by NovaAce View Post
I'm assuming this is the range OP means, 8.9% which is about one in every 11.3 hands.
OP would need to clarify whether JTs+ just meant broadway suited connectors, or any 2 suited broadway.

Last edited by NewOldGuy; 05-22-2020 at 11:16 PM.
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