Quote:
Originally Posted by Onlythenuzt
3 consecutive deals/hands
A friend just had it.
Right, but the chance that happened is 100%. There are at least two ways to answer the question as Didace alluded to. We can easily calculate the chance this happens to a player on the very next 3 hands dealt starting now. Or we can calculate the chance it happens within the span of some amount of hands played.
First, heads-up or not is irrelevant, the chance for it to happen to your friend specifically, or to you, is exactly the same no matter how many players are in the game.
So, in the example you gave, if your friend has played a million hands then this event may be very likely to occur in that span. You having witnessed it is just coincidental to that.
To be dealt AA on the very next 3 hands dealt to you starting now, the chance is 1/221^3. Or about 1 in 11 million. But it would probably be equally interesting to you if it happened with KK KK KK, or JJ JJ JJ. So for any identical paired rank to be dealt on all 3 of your very next 3 hands dealt, that chance is only about 1 in 49,000.
But the more relevant statistic is within some context. So the chance you get 3 AA in a row sometime in the next hundred thousand hands you are dealt, is about 1 in 108. And if we count any identical paired rank happening 3 times in a row, it's 87% to happen at least once.
So it matters how you ask the question.
Last edited by NewOldGuy; 01-20-2015 at 11:00 PM.
Reason: corrections