How to calculate the probability of bankroll wipe out? - Gambling and Probability

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How to calculate the probability of bankroll wipe out?

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05-25-2021 , 10:34 PM

CoitusMaximus

newbie

Join Date: Mar 2017 Posts: 24

I have a question regarding calculating the probability. Please check this spread sheet. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...#gid=644533306 using the continous 3% conditional compounding strategy like the one in this spreadsheet, how do you calculate the probability of bank roll wipe out (-333.33 unit down swing). Is it even possible since the odds of the bets are not fixed?

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05-26-2021 , 01:27 AM

browni3141

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2015 Posts: 5,678

The term for this is risk of ruin, usually abbreviated RoR.

However I'm struggling to understand exactly what betting strategy is being used. In something like sports betting with scalable bet sizing you'd usually size your bets in some proportion to your bankroll. In that case your RoR is essentially 0 as you'd never end up betting 100% of your roll (not exactly in practice because you can't place arbitrarily small bets).

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05-26-2021 , 09:04 AM

CoitusMaximus

newbie

Join Date: Mar 2017 Posts: 24

Quote:

Originally Posted by browni3141

The settings sheet of the above spreadsheet has a link to the money management strategy used. In a nutshell, you bet 1 to 10 unit on picks where 1 unit = .3% of the bankroll. So the max bet or the 10 unit bet is 3%. Majority of the bets used in the spreadsheet are 8 units or 2.6% of bankroll. After each day, you compound the winnings into the bankroll and increase the bet size to reflect the new bankroll. However, whenever there is down days, you don't change the bankroll; that is, the unit size remains the same until the bankroll reaches a new high.

I hope that helps.

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05-26-2021 , 03:00 PM

rabbitcoin

journeyman

Join Date: Jan 2021 Posts: 243

Have you tried asking that tout what they project the risk of ruin to be when using their strategy, and the methodology they used to calculate it?

There's enough data in that spreadsheet to simulate it, but since you are already paying them for picks, I assume they would also be happy to provide a full portfolio analysis and projection for their clients.

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05-27-2021 , 12:28 AM

VeniceMerchant

adept

Join Date: Mar 2020 Posts: 714

Any site that claims you can just double your money every 3 months like clockwork is fos.

$60k profit in 2018 and 1 mil profit in 2020? lol

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06-05-2021 , 04:59 PM

stremba70

adept

Join Date: Aug 2020 Posts: 1,118

Quote:

Originally Posted by VeniceMerchant

Any site that claims you can just double your money every 3 months like clockwork is fos.

$60k profit in 2018 and 1 mil profit in 2020? lol

I’m always skeptical of anyone who tries to sell you sports betting picks, systems etc., promising that you will win/get rich. If your system is so great, then why aren’t you using it to get rich yourself instead of selling picks? Selling picks to gamblers is certainly much more lucrative and less risky than using your own system.

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06-05-2021 , 09:59 PM

VeniceMerchant

adept

Join Date: Mar 2020 Posts: 714

Especially these types, where they act like it's realistic to double your money 4x a year like clockwork. They throw around just enough buzzwords for a punter to think it's legit.

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