I originally posted this in Sports Betting, but it got no responses, so I thought I'd try here. Just want a check on my work.
I’ve never been big on betting season wins, but I wrote this (I have absolutely nothing else to do today; boredom can be a good thing).
I’m posting it in hopes that people who’ve already done such work can verify that I’m not entirely redic wrong about it (I brain fart about even the easiest math). Negative feedback is fine, lol. I’m not saying this is correct, I’m asking if it is.
First, rate all the teams.
Second, find any given team’s average opponent rating.
Then (in a spreadsheet obviously) enter
A1: the team’s power rating
A2: its average opponent rating
A3: the season-wins line (the one you’re betting into).
A4: that line’s over price.
A5: that line’s under price.
Put these formulas into their respective cells, and they’ll spit out the info:
A6: =IF(OR(A3=1,A3=2,A3=3,A3=4,A3=5,A3=6,A3=7,A3=8,A3= 9,A3=10,A3=11,A3=12, A3=13,A3=14,A3=15,A3=16),BINOM.DIST(A3,16,((1 - NORMDIST(0.5, (A1-A2),13.86,TRUE)) + 0.5*(NORMDIST(0.5, (A1-A2), 13.86, TRUE) - NORMDIST(-0.5, (A1-A2), 13.86, TRUE))),FALSE))
A7: =IF(OR(A3=1,A3=2,A3=3,A3=4,A3=5,A3=6,A3=7,A3=8,A3= 9,A3=10,A3=11,A3=12,A3=13,A3=14,A3=15,A3=16),1-BINOM.DIST(A3,16,((1 - NORMDIST(0.5, (A1-A2),13.86,TRUE)) + 0.5*(NORMDIST(0.5, (A1-A2), 13.86, TRUE) - NORMDIST(-0.5, (A1-A2), 13.86, TRUE))), TRUE)+A6/2,1-BINOM.DIST(A3,16,((1 - NORMDIST(0.5, (A1-A2),13.86,TRUE)) + 0.5*(NORMDIST(0.5, (A1-A2), 13.86, TRUE) - NORMDIST(-0.5, (A1-A2), 13.86, TRUE))), TRUE)) A8: =IF(1/A7>=2,1/A7*100-100,1/(1/A7-1) *-100)
A8: =IF(1/A7>=2,1/A7*100-100,1/(1/A7-1)*-100)
A9: =A7*IF(A4<0,1/(A4/-100)+1,A4/100+1)-1
A10: =IF(OR(A3=1,A3=2,A3=3,A3=4,A3=5,A3=6,A3=7,A3=8,A3= 9,A3=10,A3=11,A3=12,A3=13,A3=14,A3=15,A3=16),BINOM .DIST(A3,16,((1 - NORMDIST(0.5, (A1-A2),13.86,TRUE)) + 0.5*(NORMDIST(0.5, (A1-A2), 13.86, TRUE) - NORMDIST(-0.5, (A1-A2), 13.86, TRUE))), TRUE)-A6/2,BINOM.DIST(A3,16,((1 - NORMDIST(0.5, (A1-A2),13.86,TRUE)) + 0.5*(NORMDIST(0.5, (A1-A2), 13.86, TRUE) - NORMDIST(-0.5, (A1-A2), 13.86, TRUE))), TRUE)) A11: =IF(1/A10>=2,1/A10*100-100,1/(1/A10-1) *-100)
A11: =IF(1/A10>=2,1/A10*100-100,1/(1/A10-1)*-100)
A12: =A10*IF(A5<0,1/(A5/-100)+1,A5/100+1)-1
A6 will be the resulting estimated push rate (FALSE for ½ game lines).
A7 will be the estimated over chance.
A8 will be the breakeven over price.
A9 will be the over-bet edge (negative is expected loss, of course).
A10 will be the estimated under chance.
A11 will be the breakeven under price.
A12 will be the under-bet edge.
