Set over Set over Set - Gambling and Probability

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Set over Set over Set

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03-01-2008 , 09:12 PM

richyl2008

centurion

Join Date: Jan 2008 Posts: 198

Anyone know the odds of this happening?

Full Tilt Poker, $0.05/$0.10 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

UTG: $27.70
MP: $10.40
CO: $10
BTN: $11.20
Hero (SB): $15.15
BB: $4.30

CO posts $0.10
Pre-Flop: 4

dealt to Hero (SB)
UTG raises to $0.40, MP folds, CO raises to

$1.35, 2 folds, BB raises to $4.30 and is All-In, UTG calls $3.90, CO raises to $10 and is All-In, UTG calls $5.70

Flop: ($24.35) 6

(3 Players - 1 is All-In)

Turn: ($24.35) J

(3 Players - 1 is All-In)

River: ($24.35) A

(3 Players - 1 is All-In)

Results: $24.35 Pot ($2 Rake)
UTG showed J J (three of a kind, Jacks) and LOST (-$10 NET)
CO showed K K (three of a kind, Kings) and WON $22.35 (+$12.35 NET)
BB showed Q Q (three of a kind, Queens) and LOST (-$4.30 NET)

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03-02-2008 , 06:44 AM

Lateksi

adept

Join Date: Jun 2007 Posts: 853

I'm not sure I got this right, but I calculated the odds of catching a set by the river (assuming 6 cards, the 3 pairs, are known), raised to the 3th power.

(1-((44/46)*(43/45)*(42/44)*(41/43)*(40/42)))^3

that's about 0.9%
someone correct my faulty logic please!

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03-02-2008 , 10:39 AM

jay_shark

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Sep 2006 Posts: 3,655

If you're interested in the probability that a set over set over set happens on the flop , then in a 3 player game, it would be:

13*6/52C2*12*6/50C2*11*6/48C2*2^3/46C3 ~ 0.0000001066

At an n-handed table , you would multiply the above by a factor of nC3.

So for n=10 , P(s/s/s) ~ 0.00001279

2) If you're interested in the probability that it happens by the turn , then as a good approximation, you may multiply the above by 4C3 for when you deal out 4 cards and 5C3 for when you deal out 5 cards.

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03-02-2008 , 04:14 PM

richyl2008

centurion

Join Date: Jan 2008 Posts: 198

Looks like it would probably be less than 2 or 3 times in a lifetime

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03-04-2008 , 01:48 PM

bmorganonap

grinder

Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 424

ive played over 1million hands and never seen it

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03-05-2008 , 02:18 AM

shaggylowball1

newbie

Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 22

I was in a small sitngo at my local card room and i had Jacks raised pre flop 5 callers flop comes 7 5 2 Im on button action goes bet/raise/all in .. I folded and it was set over set over set i rivered a set. never seen anything like that in my life..

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