Hi, doesnt he have to fold 2.5 : 3.5 = 71.43% for us to really "breakeven" meaning we end up with the final stack of $100 ?
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,US,,,,,,,,,, ,,,,VILLAIN,,,,,,,,,POT,,,,,,,TOTAL
STARTING STACKS,,,,,,,,,,,,,100,,,,,,,,,,,,,100,,,,,,,,,,,, ,,,0,,,,,,,,,,200
BLINDS ARE POSTED,,,,,,,,,,,99.5,,,,,,,,,,,,99,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, ,1.5,,,,,,,,200
WE RAISE,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,97.5,,,,,,,,,,,,99,, ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,3.5,,,,,,,,200
HE FOLDS(71.43%),,,,,,,,,,,,,101,,,,,,,,,,,,,99,, ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,0,,,,,,,,,,200
HE CALLS(28.%),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,97.5,,,,,,,,,,,97.5 ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,5,,,,,,,,,,200
HE WINS AFTER A CALL,,,,,,,97.5,,,,,,,,,,,,102.5,,,,,,,,,,,,,0,,,, ,,,,,,,200
1 x 0,7143 - 2,5 x 0,2857 = 0,00005 = ~ 0
Meanwhile I realized that this was for 3x open
"4. If you use the criterion of maintaining the initial stack of 100, the required fold equity is given by fe*(101)+(1-fe)*97 = 100; fe = 0.75"
!!!Something else to consider which changed my way of thinking about poker.
HU, blinds $0.5/$1
We open to $2.5, BB 3bets us to $7.5 and we call.
He has two red AA, and we have JT suited.
The flop comes Q92 rainbow and we have OESD and no backdoor flush draw.
Now we don't care about our ranges, let's just look at these 2 exact hands.
We have 34.24% equity and he has 65.76% equity.
If we had a different hand and we plugged it in vs his range and got this number of 34.24%, it would be the same (let's put playability, positions and ranges aside).
1)The pot is $15 and he cbets for half pot ($7.5) and he shows us his hand.
We can either call or raise this but let's just concentrate on the calling option.
According to pot odds, we are breaking even by calling a half pot bet if we have minumum 25% equity. 7.5 : ( 15 + 7.5 + 7.5 ) = 0.25 = 25%
So, in this case we have more than enough equity to call ( 34.24% > 25% ) so we aren't breaking even, we are actually making money by calling. Or maybe not ?
To make this simple, let's say that after we call that flop bet, the hand ends right there.
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,US,,,,,,,,,, ,,,VILLAIN,,,,,,,,,POT,,,,,,,TOTAL
STARTING STACKS,,,,,,,,,,,,,100,,,,,,,,,,,,,100,,,,,,,,,,,, ,,,,,0,,,,,,,,,,200
BLINDS ARE POSTED,,,,,,,,,,,99.5,,,,,,,,,,,,99,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, ,,,1.5,,,,,,,,200
WE RAISE,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,97.5,,,,,,,,,,,,99,, ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,3.5,,,,,,,,200
HE 3BETS,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,97.5,,,,,,,,,,,,92.5 ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,10,,,,,,,,,,200
WE CALL,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,92.5,,,,,,,,,,,92.5 ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,15,,,,,,,,,,200
HE CBETS,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,92.5,,,,,,,,,,,,,85,, ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,22.5,,,,,,,,200
WE CALL,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,85,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,85, ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,30,,,,,,,,,,200
WE WIN(34.34%),,,,,,,,,,,,,,115,,,,,,,,,,,,,,85,,,,,, ,,,,,,,,,,,,0,,,,,,,,,,200
WE LOSE(65.76%),,,,,,,,,,,,,85,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,115,,,,, ,,,,,,,,,,,,0,,,,,,,,,,200
AFTER 100 HANDS,,,,,,,,,,,,,-373,,,,,,,,,,,,573,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,0,,,,,,,,,,,,200
So, we either win or lose $15.
34.24% x 15 - 65.76% x 15 = - 4.73 which is a loss of $4.73 per every hand
After 100 of these hands, after 100 times that we are put into this spot, we are going to be down 4.73 x 100 = $473 which is shockingly massive.
So, if we are losing a **** tone of money there, why would we even call that flop bet??
If you are confused by this, just continue reading and I will try to explain the reality of this spot as best as I can.
It's not that we have position in the hand or implied odds that are going to make us money because we are making a "profitable play".
We legit have the worse hand in a heads up pot where both players invested the same amount of money and therefore, the only player who is making money here is the player in the BB who has the best hand at the moment.
So, if you are maybe wondering, if BB checks here or uses a different bet size, he is going to make money anyway and we are going to be losing money whatever we do.
2)Let's make a different scenario.
We have the same hands, same flop and same action unless here BB cbets for $30 which is an 2x pot overbet.
We have 34.24% equity in the pot.
Versus this overbet, according to pot odds we need to call $30 to win the previous pot of $15 + his flop bet of $30. 30 : ( 30 + 15 + 30) = 30 : 75 = 0.4 = 40%
We need 40% equity here to breakeven.
If we want to calculate our average loss per hand here:
34.24% x 37.5 - 65.76% x 37.5 = - 11.82 , we lose $11.82 each hand
(after we call the pot size is $75 and both players invested half of that which is 37.5, we either win or lose $37.5 at the end of the hand )
3)And now, let's see what happens if we decide to end this torture on the flop and fold right away ( even to to BB's bet size that is "profitable" for us to call, which is bet size that requires us to have at least 34.34% equity to call according to pot odds, e.g. half pot bet).
When we fold, his bet size doesn't matter because we lose the same amount of money regardless, anyway...
If we fold to his cbet
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,US,,,,,,,,,,, VILLAIN,,,,,,,,,,,,POT,,,,,,,,TOTAL
STARTING STACK,,,,,,,,,,,,,,100,,,,,,,,,,,,,,100,,,,,,,,,,, ,,,,0,,,,,,,,,,,,200
HE CBETS,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,92.5,,,,,,,,,,,,,85,, ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,22.5,,,,,,,,200
WE FOLD,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,92.5,,,,,,,,,,,,,107. 5,,,,,,,,,,,,,0,,,,,,,,,,,200
we will be down $7.5 every hand
4)Last example finally, to make this comparison of average loss in every scenario look good.
He cbets the flop pot of $15 with $16.31
For us to "breakeven", 16.31 : ( 16.31 + 15 + 16.31 ) = 16.31 : 47.62 = 0.3425 = ~0.3424 = 34.24% equity is needed.
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,US,,,,,,,,,,, VILLAIN,,,,,,,,,,,,POT,,,,,,,,TOTAL
STARTING STACK,,,,,,,,,,,,,,100,,,,,,,,,,,,,,100,,,,,,,,,,, ,,,,0,,,,,,,,,,,,200
HE CBETS,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,92.5,,,,,,,,,,,,,76.1 9,,,,,,,,,,31.31,,,,,,,,,200
WE CALL,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,76.19,,,,,,,,,,,,76.1 9,,,,,,,,,,,47.62,,,,,,,,200
We either lose or win $23.81 and we have the same old 34.34% equity.
23.81 x 0.3424 - 23.81 x 0.6576 = - 7.5 , which is a loss of $7.5 every hand on average.
SUMMARY
1)25% equity needed to call and we had 34.24% --> average loss of $4.73
2)40% equity needed to call and we had 34.24% --> average loss of $11.28
3)We decided to fold,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,--> average loss of $7.5
4)34.24% equity is needed to call, we had 32.24$--> average loss of $7.5
CONCLUSION:
-In the scenario 4), it is obvious that both calling and folding would bring us the same result.
-In the scenario 1) pot odds are forcing us to call because we are above the "breakeven limit". They are forcing us to call because not because we are making money by calling. We are just losing less by calling, if we folded we would lose even more and for that reason, we have to call.
WHAT'S THE SOLUTION, WE ARE ALWAYS LOSING ?
-If we are an underdog, we need to orientate by the pot odds and try to cut our losses, try to lose as less as we can. By doing that, our opponent is going to win the minimum from us.
-In the long run, both us and our opponent will have sometimes AA and sometimes JT in this spot. What we need to profit is to win more money the times we have AA and lose less money with JT (in comparison to our opponent)
Ty if you made it to here, this was a bit too long and I was explaining it in more details so even a dummy like me could understand it.
I have some strategy theories beyond this but I didn't work them out completely. It all came up because I was trying to find my own way to play profitably as opposed to mostly listening to others how to play.