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 08-11-2017, 09:33 PM #1 danny356 centurion     Join Date: Aug 2012 Posts: 189 match play EV The casino gives you \$100 in matchplay for either blackjack or baccarat whats the EV of this \$100? i think the house wins ~51% of the time so its \$49 in ev? the house edge in these games is 1% so does that mean i can wager 4900 worth of bets for a EV of \$0?
 08-11-2017, 10:37 PM #2 RustyBrooks Carpal \'Tunnel     Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Austin, TX Posts: 23,201 Re: match play EV Moved from poker theory. What are the play requirements for the game? I'm not an expert but if there are no play requirements then you could split the money up however you like and make a series of bets to get the same EV, as long as you don't exceed \$100 in bets. For example, you could bet \$100 1 time or \$10 10 times or \$1 100 times However, I would expect there to be a play requirement in terms of hours or number of hands. If you end up having to wager more than a total of \$100 then your EV will be less than \$49, which is the EV of wagering exactly \$100. If you can wager exactly \$100, then the differences in how you choose to bet basically boil down to "locking in" your EV with lower variance (more, smaller bets) or gambling for a bigger potential payoff (less, larger bets)
 08-11-2017, 11:28 PM #3 danny356 centurion     Join Date: Aug 2012 Posts: 189 Re: match play EV theres no set amount of hours or hands you need to play just that you have to match the bet for example if you use the entire \$100 match play you have to match at least \$100 to it -if you win you get paid \$200 and your bet return and match play card destroyed -if you lose your bet is taken and you gain \$0 and have your match play destroyed. -if you tie.. no idea You can Cashout immediately after winning and lock in that +\$49 in EV if you wish my question is how much do we have to wager to bring our EV from +\$49 to \$0? If the house edge is 1% that means we can cycle to 4900 worth of bets and be neutral ev, no?
 08-12-2017, 02:31 PM #4 RustyBrooks Carpal \'Tunnel     Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Austin, TX Posts: 23,201 Re: match play EV So I'm a little confused. You can only use this \$100 token once, and you have to bet at least \$100 of your own to go with it, but can bet more? I think I disagree with your logic a little regarding EV: If you win, you win \$200, yes. But if you lose, you lose \$100 - both the \$100 token and your actual \$100. So the EV for a \$100 bet would be EV = 0.49*200 - 0.51*-100 = 47 I really can't make any sense of your second question. Are you saying, OK, I'll play 1 \$100 match bet (my \$100 + their \$100), and then N \$100 regular bets (my \$100), how high is N before my EV is 0?
08-12-2017, 03:42 PM   #5
Didace
Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2009
Posts: 12,208
Re: match play EV

Quote:
 Originally Posted by danny356 You can Cashout immediately after winning and lock in that +\$49 in EV if you wish
What does this mean?

 08-16-2017, 10:01 AM #6 Yoshi63 old hand     Join Date: Jan 2007 Location: sandstorm Posts: 1,920 Re: match play EV A 49/51 game is 2% house-edge, not 1%. Blackjack is usually 1% or less depending on rules. Rusty, I think he is asking how much he can continue to play afterwards. It's a promotion and they probably would frown upon placing one match play bet and leaving, even if it's technically allowed. Danny, it depends whether or not you are still going to "cycle" the bets after an initial loss. If you're planning to walk out after losing your match-play bet, then you can play around \$9800 in bets after a win. But if you are going to continue playing regardless of outcome, then you can only wager around \$4900. Every additional bet you place is losing money, so the less often you engage in doing so, the more \$ you can "afford" to bet and still break even.

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