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Won 2-outers vs lost 2-outers Won 2-outers vs lost 2-outers

01-28-2021 , 07:07 AM
I have during the hole 2020 until 26 of jan 2021 tracked a couple of things at a site were trackers cant be used. What I find most "shocking" with this data is the amount of 2-outers won AIPF compared to amount of 2-outers lost AIPF.

Here is an example of what I mean: I have lets say JJ and fi have KK. I win the hand AIPF and its a won 2-outer for me. A lost 2-outer for me is the opposite, I have KK and fi have JJ and fi wins AIPF.

Data:
Days played: 342
Won 2-outer: 411
Lost 2-outer: 1162

Im not sure really and I might be wrong here, but shouldnt won 2-outers vs lost 2-outers be pretty much the same? I know stats, playing style, etc. effects the outcome, but in my world the difference here is just to big. I know sample size might be to small, but it is what it is. Feel free to comment and plz enlight me if I am thinking wrong here.
Won 2-outers vs lost 2-outers Quote
01-28-2021 , 10:01 AM
Looks to me like you're just getting it in bad. What are the percentages?
Won 2-outers vs lost 2-outers Quote
01-28-2021 , 06:57 PM
Find the total number of hands you got it in ahead and behind and calculate percentages for each situation: behind and won, behind and lost, ahead and won, ahead and lost. Check how close your results are to your average equity, too.
Won 2-outers vs lost 2-outers Quote
01-29-2021 , 07:03 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by PartyDontCare
I have during the hole 2020 until 26 of jan 2021 tracked a couple of things at a site were trackers cant be used. What I find most "shocking" with this data is the amount of 2-outers won AIPF compared to amount of 2-outers lost AIPF.

Here is an example of what I mean: I have lets say JJ and fi have KK. I win the hand AIPF and its a won 2-outer for me. A lost 2-outer for me is the opposite, I have KK and fi have JJ and fi wins AIPF.

Data:
Days played: 342
Won 2-outer: 411
Lost 2-outer: 1162

Im not sure really and I might be wrong here, but shouldnt won 2-outers vs lost 2-outers be pretty much the same? I know stats, playing style, etc. effects the outcome, but in my world the difference here is just to big. I know sample size might be to small, but it is what it is. Feel free to comment and plz enlight me if I am thinking wrong here.
First off, I wouldn't really call these 2-outers. They are really all-in pair vs. pair situations. A 2-outer is usually something post-flop, usually on the turn, and the percentage is a lot lower than it is in pair vs. pair.

That said, it really has nothing to do with your sample size. Especially since we have no idea what the sample size is. You have included the days played, but this doesn't really tell us anything. You are counting events without counting the number of possible results.

You think that the number of wins should be about the same as the number of losses. What makes you think that?

Let's take a hypothetical super tight player. He will only get all-in preflop with one hand - pocket aces. He is playing heads-up against someone who will get all-in with any pair. They get all-in preflop 1000 times. The tight player will have 0 instances of winning with the "2-outer", and his opponent will probably have about 200. It doesn't mean anything weird is going on, it just means that one person is more willing to get all-in.

As the others have said you need the percentages - and by focusing just on the outcome you probably haven't recorded that information. I'm pretty sure if you had the number of instances of each pair over pair situation, that the percentages would probably be pretty close.
Won 2-outers vs lost 2-outers Quote

      
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