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 10-21-2009, 08:11 AM #2 Pyromantha veteran   Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 2,227 Re: Limited Loss Triple Progression Roulette ?? - Discussion (hopefully) I am very sure the code is wrong, without looking at it No series of -EV bets can add up to a +EV bet, ever. If you keep following the system until you hit \$242 or \$0, for sure you will hit \$0 over 50% of the time starting from \$121. In fact it must be less than 18/37 - as the best possible strategy if your goal is to double-up is just to bet your entire bankroll on the first hand. Feel free to paste the code in the thread and we can tell you where it's wrong!
 10-21-2009, 10:33 AM #3 paddyshiel stranger     Join Date: Oct 2009 Location: Ireland Posts: 4 Re: Limited Loss Triple Progression Roulette ?? - Discussion (hopefully) Yep, had another quick look and it seems that there was an error in my code. The chance of doubling up versus hitting zero seem to be about 40-45% / 60-65%. So that's a loser. My apologies for a long winded rant, but I think there is something in all the madness that is my post above. Consider the situation changed a little; instead of trying to double up you either go to 1.5 times the initial investment per game. So start: 121, stop gambling at 182 or 0. Seems like the chances of hitting 182 are greater than 0 (60/40 in favour of hitting 182). This time I've posted the code (which is also long winded), but worth a look I feel. Pyromantha, (and any others), If you have some free time have a look... Code: import java.util.Random; public class Roulette { public static void main(String[] args) { double initial_money = 121; double stop_gambling_at = 182; int rounds = 10000; double min_bet = 1; int wins = 0; int loss = 0; String hist = ""; Player player; RouletteWheel wheel; for(int i=0; i= amount) { num_spins++; return new RouletteBet(bet_colour, amount); } else if(bank_roll>0) { num_spins++; return new RouletteBet(bet_colour, bank_roll); } else { return null; } } private void changeBettingColour() { if(bet_colour=='B') { bet_colour = 'R'; } else if(bet_colour=='R') { bet_colour = 'B'; } } public void win(double n) { bank_roll += n; changeBettingColour(); this.num_losses = 0; } public void lose(double n) { bank_roll -= n; this.num_losses++; } public String toString() { return "Player: \$" + bank_roll + " Colour: " + bet_colour; } public boolean isBankrupt() { return this.bank_roll<= 0 ; } public double getBankroll() { return this.bank_roll; } } public static class RouletteResult { private int number; private char colour; public RouletteResult( int n ) { this.number = n; if(this.number == 0) { colour = 'G'; } else if(this.number % 2 == 0) { colour = 'B'; } else { colour = 'R'; } } public char getColour() { return this.colour; } public int getNumber() { return this.number; } public String toString() { return this.number + " " + this.colour; } } public static class RouletteBet { private char colour = 'X'; private int number = -1; private double amount = 0.0; public RouletteBet(char colour, double stake) { this.colour = colour; this.amount = stake; } public RouletteBet(int number, double stake) { this.number = number; if(this.number == 0) { colour = 'G'; } else if(this.number % 2 == 0) { colour = 'B'; } else { colour = 'R'; } this.amount = stake; } public char getColour() { return this.colour; } public int getNumber() { return this.number; } public double getAmount() { return this.amount; } public String toString() { return this.colour + " : \$"+ this.amount; } } }
 10-21-2009, 10:39 AM #4 spadebidder Actually Shows Proof     Join Date: Aug 2008 Location: This looks interesting. Posts: 7,903 Re: Limited Loss Triple Progression Roulette ?? - Discussion (hopefully) I have a roulette simulator I wrote as well. The key factor you seem to be omitting, and which is the real limiting factor for martingale-like schemes, is the table limit. Generally it will be no more than 200 min bets, usually less. That means you can double at most 7 times. You will never create a roulette betting scheme where you walk away a winner 50%+ of the time. Using pure martingale, with 200x table limits and a bankroll that will let you double 7 times, and you set a stop-win goal of 2x, you will walk away with 2x your starting stake about 11% of the time, and lose 100% the rest of the time. If you set your stop-win at one min bet, it will still be less than 50% (I forget the exact amount). As pointed out by another poster, the maximum likelihood of walking away winner is achieved by just putting down all your money once on red/black or odd/even, and there your chance is equal to the house edge, which means 18/38 for double zero or 18/37 for single zero. You cannot improve on that. Last edited by spadebidder; 10-21-2009 at 11:01 AM.
10-21-2009, 11:13 AM   #5
stranger

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Re: Limited Loss Triple Progression Roulette ?? - Discussion (hopefully)

Quote:
 I have a roulette simulator I wrote as well. The key factor you seem to be omitting, and which is the real limiting factor for martingale-like schemes, is the table limit. Generally it will be no more than 200 min bets
I don't think you have really read the post correctly, I would never be betting more than 200 min bets on one spin. Also there are casinos both real and online which have a better range in terms of limits.

 10-21-2009, 11:22 AM #6 Monteroy Carpal \'Tunnel   Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 8,947 Re: Limited Loss Triple Progression Roulette ?? - Discussion (hopefully) Why don't you just do your theory with play money on one of the many online casinos (use a cryptologic software one if you like like Intercasino). Do a bunch of trials and see how it goes. Kind of hard to really argue with someone on this because as Pyro said earlier you simply cannot create a +EV scenario by combining -EV bets. No ifs and or buts about it. Sure, it is easy to create all kinds of systems where you walk away "ahead" a lot, but that does not make them +EV. Just put a bet of \$1 each on 1 to 34 in European roulette for 1 spin and you will walk away with a winning session over 90% of the time. Means nothing. Your roulette system like any system has to lose in the long run because of the math involved. Only way to break this is to sell it on youtube to suckers who might actually believe in it, then at least their money is +EV to you, and they can lose their life savings at their own pace however they prefer.
 10-21-2009, 11:37 AM #7 paddyshiel stranger     Join Date: Oct 2009 Location: Ireland Posts: 4 Re: Limited Loss Triple Progression Roulette ?? - Discussion (hopefully) Well put Monteroy, thanks for the input!
10-21-2009, 11:40 AM   #8
Pyromantha
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Posts: 2,227
Re: Limited Loss Triple Progression Roulette ?? - Discussion (hopefully)

Quote:
 Originally Posted by paddyshiel Pyromantha, (and any others), If you have some free time have a look... Code: import java.util.Random; public class Roulette { public static void main(String[] args) { double initial_money = 121; double stop_gambling_at = 182; double money_in = initial_money * rounds; double money_out = ((initial_money*wins*2)); double profit = money_out - money_in;
I don't actually know much about computer programming, but is there not an error here? [I have only included the relevant seeming lines].

If you are stopping at 182, then money_out should be 182*wins = initial_money*wins*1.50413

Last edited by Pyromantha; 10-21-2009 at 11:51 AM.

10-21-2009, 11:41 AM   #9
Actually Shows Proof

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Location: This looks interesting.
Posts: 7,903
Re: Limited Loss Triple Progression Roulette ?? - Discussion (hopefully)

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Monteroy Sure, it is easy to create all kinds of systems where you walk away "ahead" a lot, but that does not make them +EV.
You're right about this, and I misstated it in my post. My point was that (winning sessions * avg amount won) will always be less than (losing sessions * avg amount lost). You can skew things for a lot of tiny wins and a few huge losses. The same is true for any continuous session.

10-21-2009, 11:47 AM   #10
Pyromantha
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Re: Limited Loss Triple Progression Roulette ?? - Discussion (hopefully)

Quote:
 Originally Posted by paddyshiel I don't think you have really read the post correctly, I would never be betting more than 200 min bets on one spin. Also there are casinos both real and online which have a better range in terms of limits.
Fwiw this is a red herring in terms of why Martingaling doesn't work. The higher the house limit, the quicker on average you bankrupt a bankroll of any size.

Again simply because the EV of a series of trials is just the sum of the EVs from each individual trial. The more you can bet, the bigger the negative \$EV is for that spin.

10-21-2009, 11:50 AM   #11
Pyromantha
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Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 2,227
Re: Limited Loss Triple Progression Roulette ?? - Discussion (hopefully)

Quote:
 Originally Posted by paddyshiel Consider the situation changed a little; instead of trying to double up you either go to 1.5 times the initial investment per game. So start: 121, stop gambling at 182 or 0. Seems like the chances of hitting 182 are greater than 0 (60/40 in favour of hitting 182).
Note that this is not a profitable situation.

If your wins are half as big as your losses [you win 61 or lose 121, so approx half as big here], you need to win twice as often as you lose to make it neutral EV. i.e. you would need to win about 66-67% of the time, winning 60% of the time is still losing money long-run.

 10-22-2009, 05:57 PM #12 SpeedLimiter veteran     Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 2,077 Re: Limited Loss Triple Progression Roulette ?? - Discussion (hopefully) The only thing any roulette "system" may help you do is lose money at a slower rate. a system which creates a +ev bet at an unbiased roulette table is impossible.

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