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Old 09-24-2008, 02:05 AM   #1
quadaces9999
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KK vs AA preflop

What are the odds of getting KK preflop and another player at the same 9 handed table getting AA preflop?
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Old 09-24-2008, 05:48 AM   #2
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Re: KK vs AA preflop

Easy if you use wiki page

Reference:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poker_p...s_hold_'em)


it says, probability for getting AA is 1/221 = 0.005 ~ 0.5%
This is the same for getting KK.

It also says the probability facing larger pair when you have KK vs 8 players is 0.0391 ~ 4%

You multiply those odds (1/221) * 0.0391 = 0.00018
This is the odds, that this event will happen for the next hand.

The odds you are up against AA when you have KK vs 8 players is 0.0391 ~ 4%.


---
Almost same odds for hitting running straight or running flush from flop or hitting 2 pair on flop with non-pocket pair.
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Old 09-24-2008, 12:05 PM   #3
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Re: KK vs AA preflop

Quote:
Originally Posted by quadaces9999 View Post
What are the odds of getting KK preflop and another player at the same 9 handed table getting AA preflop?
You get dealt kings with probability 6/1326. Given that you hold kings, the probability that any of the 8 players hold pocket aces is

8*6/1225 - C(8,2)*6/1225*1/1228 ~ 0.03906

If you wish for both events to occur simultaneously, then you would multiply the event that you get pocket kings, with the event that one of the players gets dealt pocket aces.

6/1326*(8*6/1225 - C(8,2)*6/1225*1/1228) ~ 0.00017675
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Old 09-24-2008, 01:55 PM   #4
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Re: KK vs AA preflop

Quote:
Originally Posted by jay_shark View Post
You get dealt kings with probability 6/1326. Given that you hold kings, the probability that any of the 8 players hold pocket aces is

8*6/1225 - C(8,2)*6/1225*1/1228 ~ 0.03906

If you wish for both events to occur simultaneously, then you would multiply the event that you get pocket kings, with the event that one of the players gets dealt pocket aces.

6/1326*(8*6/1225 - C(8,2)*6/1225*1/1228) ~ 0.00017675
1228 should be 1128 in both of these. The final answers are correct.
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Old 09-24-2008, 09:06 PM   #5
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Re: KK vs AA preflop

The odds are in the ballpark of 24:1.
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Old 09-25-2008, 01:16 PM   #6
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Re: KK vs AA preflop

Ignore all this math, it's just a bunch of gobbledygook.

I can tell you from personal experience that whenever you get dealt kings you are about even money to run into aces.

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Old 09-25-2008, 11:55 PM   #7
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Re: KK vs AA preflop

sick situation. Atleast its not Ak vs AA. WEEEEE
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Old 09-26-2008, 01:01 AM   #8
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Re: KK vs AA preflop

In live cash games, you can tell when its AA vs KK because its AIPF for both players damn near every time. As they are about to turn them over, the guy with kings says something like, "You got aces?"
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Old 09-26-2008, 07:54 PM   #9
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Re: KK vs AA preflop

I had kings against aces four times in two live plays recently, which seemed outrageous. The reason it probably seemed outrageous was that, as I thought back on it later, I only remember having Kings against aces ONCE IN MY LIFE. I mean there was probably a couple more in there, but I was running great on it and didn't even realize it and it caught up with me - or something like that.

Just writing that "once in my life kings against aces" stat, I realized that kind of excludes everything pre-2003 and the arrival of the no-limit boom. Because I'm sure it happened a bunch of times but just wasn't nearly so memorable in the days of limit play.

Last edited by Cinch; 09-26-2008 at 08:06 PM.
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Old 11-24-2013, 10:49 AM   #10
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Re: KK vs AA preflop

Quote:
Originally Posted by dbcooper279 View Post
In live cash games, you can tell when its AA vs KK because its AIPF for both players damn near every time. As they are about to turn them over, the guy with kings says something like, "You got aces?"
That very thing just happened to me yesterday and I said those exact words to the jerk that had AA! SMH
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Old 11-24-2013, 10:59 AM   #11
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Re: KK vs AA preflop

Lol how did you even find this thread (it's >5 years old)? I love that your name is PokerKKing and you're talking about your KK running into AA.

I'm not insulting you just think both of these things are funny. Welcome to 2p2 :P

Was the guy's name PokerAAce?
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Old 05-19-2014, 07:27 AM   #12
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Re: KK vs AA preflop

I know this thread is old, but it fits my question. If I go allin preflop with KK, the upper bound for my odds of running into an opponent holding AA should be 4,32%.

Is that correct?

count hero allin preflop KK & villain allin preflop AA / count hero allin preflop KK = 0,0432
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Old 05-19-2014, 09:47 AM   #13
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Re: KK vs AA preflop

The upper bound would be the number for 9max or 10max.

In 9max there are 8 villains.
8*C(4,2)/C(50,2) - C(8,2)*C(4,4)/C(50,4) = 3.90621%

Edit: for 10max it's 4.39253%, close to what you said.

In general for Nmax: (N-1)*C(4,2)/C(50,2) - C(N-1, 2)/C(50,4)

Last edited by heehaww; 05-19-2014 at 10:08 AM.
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Old 05-19-2014, 11:30 AM   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by heehaww View Post
The upper bound would be the number for 9max or 10max.

In 9max there are 8 villains.
8*C(4,2)/C(50,2) - C(8,2)*C(4,4)/C(50,4) = 3.90621%

Edit: for 10max it's 4.39253%, close to what you said.

In general for Nmax: (N-1)*C(4,2)/C(50,2) - C(N-1, 2)/C(50,4)
Important point for poker2brain's specific question, because of how it was worded:

That probability above answers the question, "When I am dealt KK, what is the chance someone at the table was dealt AA?" It does not answer the question as asked "When I go all-in preflop with KK, what is the chance of facing AA?"

In other words, it is the probability immediately after the deal when we look down at KK and nobody has acted yet. Bets or folds before us gives new information and changes the probability at the point we are making our all-in decision.

Last edited by NewOldGuy; 05-19-2014 at 11:40 AM.
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Old 05-19-2014, 12:26 PM   #15
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Re: KK vs AA preflop

Yeah of course, "What's the probability he has AA given that he just 5-bet-shoved on me" is obviously going to be greater than my 4% number unless the guy 5-bet shoves ATC 100% of the time.

So at 9max then, 3.9% is actually the lower bound on the probability. The upper bound is 100% (if villain is an extreme nit).

Edit: Well, if it's the same maniac going crazy with ATC, and everyone else has folded, then the probability is C(4,2)/C(50,2) = 0.49%, so I suppose that's the lower bound depending on the situation.

Last edited by heehaww; 05-19-2014 at 12:36 PM.
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Old 05-19-2014, 01:31 PM   #16
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Re: KK vs AA preflop

So basically we can't just assume that villain has AA 4% of the time when we face an allin situation preflop holding KK, since villains betting behaviour and/or early raise will chance the odds of this instance to happen.
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Old 05-19-2014, 08:57 PM   #17
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Re: KK vs AA preflop

Quote:
Originally Posted by poker2brain View Post
So basically we can't just assume that villain has AA 4% of the time when we face an allin situation preflop holding KK, since villains betting behaviour and/or early raise will chance the odds of this instance to happen.
How often do you face AA when called?
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Old 05-19-2014, 10:16 PM   #18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by poker2brain View Post
So basically we can't just assume that villain has AA 4% of the time when we face an allin situation preflop holding KK, since villains betting behaviour and/or early raise will chance the odds of this instance to happen.
I mainly wanted you to realize that if you get an early_open+raise+reraise before you act, the chance is much greater than 4% even though on average somebody will hold AA only 4% of the times you hold KK.
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Old 05-20-2014, 12:32 AM   #19
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Re: KK vs AA preflop

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sevenfold View Post
Ignore all this math, it's just a bunch of gobbledygook.

I can tell you from personal experience that whenever you get dealt kings you are about even money to run into aces.

7
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Old 05-22-2014, 04:00 AM   #20
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Re: KK vs AA preflop

Hero KK: 5100
Hero KK Saw Flop: 3076
Hero KK Saw Showdown: 1517
Hero KK Saw Showdown & Villain AA Saw Showdown: 132

Out of 645 Allin situations with KK I won 359 hands and split 22 hands (= 57,36%). Expected Allin Equity 59,64%.

Allin Preflop KK 591 situations - Facing Villain holding AA 81 - Expected Equity 72,83% - Occured Equity 71,12%

Last edited by poker2brain; 05-22-2014 at 04:13 AM.
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Old 05-22-2014, 12:33 PM   #21
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Re: KK vs AA preflop

My currency Won/Lost rate with KK allin (just cash game / not considering the Splits)...

Preflop Allin: 49/51
Any Street Allin: 55/45
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Old 05-22-2014, 05:06 PM   #22
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Quote:
Originally Posted by poker2brain View Post
My currency Won/Lost rate with KK allin (just cash game / not considering the Splits)...

Preflop Allin: 49/51
Any Street Allin: 55/45
So what is this even supposed to mean? Without knowing both the equities and the sample size this doesn't tell you anything.
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Old 05-22-2014, 05:19 PM   #23
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Re: KK vs AA preflop

Something sounds off.
Quote:
Allin Preflop KK 591 situations - Facing Villain holding AA 81
So 81/591 times he was against AA, and yet
Quote:
Preflop Allin: 49/51
He only won 290/591 of his preflop KK all-ins. He has every hand other than AA crushed, so with an N of 591 he should be winning more than 49%.
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Old 05-22-2014, 07:34 PM   #24
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Re: KK vs AA preflop

...
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Old 05-22-2014, 08:12 PM   #25
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Re: KK vs AA preflop

Sorry for the confusion...I was looking at non updated tables of mine and mixed some of those results with new database queries. The following stats are accurate and at some point they have improved.

****
NL Holdem Cash & NL Holdem Tournament: 1094652 total hands

KK Dealt: 5100
KK Saw Flop: 3076
KK Saw Showdown: 1517
KK vs AA: 132

KK Allin AnyStreet: 1196
Won => 799
Split => 40
Facing AA => 93 or 7,77%
Equity Expected => 69,31%
Equity Occured => 68,47%

KK Allin Preflop: 591
Won => 387
Split => 24
Facing AA => 62 or 10,49%
Equity Expected => 69,13%
Equity Occured => 67,51%

****
Cash Game Allin AnyStreet KK Amount of money Won + Cash Game Allin AnyStreet Allin KK Amount of money Lost = 100%
Cash Game Allin AnyStreet KK Amount of money Won = 58%
Cash Game Allin AnyStreet KK Amount of money Lost = 42%

Cash Game Allin Preflop KK Amount of money Won + Cash Game Allin Preflop KK Amount of money Lost = 100%
Cash Game Allin Preflop KK Amount of money Won = 52%
Cash Game Allin Preflop KK Amount of money Lost = 48%

Quote:
Originally Posted by NewOldGuy View Post
So what is this even supposed to mean?
It means that for me shoving KK preflop will result in even money. At least it has been for the past 800K hands or so.

Last edited by poker2brain; 05-22-2014 at 08:19 PM.
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