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JJ-QQ-KK VS AJ-AQ-AK JJ-QQ-KK VS AJ-AQ-AK

09-04-2014 , 03:48 PM
Is it just me or does ace always seem to hit on the flop especially when you've a blocker like KK VS AK and you're close to the money.

This has happened to me about 90% in the last 6 months when were both allin. Every time its my opponent underestimating my strength and jamming my 2b.

It is either the site is rigged to throw out aces on the board more often or my opponent had a feeling he was gonna hit an ace which makes him a complete donk imo.

Last edited by MistakesWereMade; 09-04-2014 at 04:01 PM.
JJ-QQ-KK VS AJ-AQ-AK Quote
09-04-2014 , 04:38 PM
Yes, it happens every time. Everyone knows this. Don't play these junk hands, just play any hand with an ace in it. Easy money.
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09-04-2014 , 04:55 PM
Aces actually appear the least often on the board of any rank in the deck. This has been proven with very large samples and there is a legit reason why this happens.
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09-05-2014 , 01:23 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by NewOldGuy
Aces actually appear the least often on the board of any rank in the deck. This has been proven with very large samples and there is a legit reason why this happens.
Voodoo?
JJ-QQ-KK VS AJ-AQ-AK Quote
09-05-2014 , 03:14 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by just_grindin
Voodoo?
Think about it. Flops are not seen on every hand. Whether or not they get seen is not a random process.
JJ-QQ-KK VS AJ-AQ-AK Quote
09-11-2014 , 12:21 AM
When we lose we remember those times more than the times we win because they are more unexpected. If you create an unbiased study with all of the results you might find that they even out over time. For instance every time you are dealt KK and are facing AK keep a record of all the times you lose... but also the times you win. KK loses to AK about a 1/3 of the time. So it isn't that unlikely. Think about rolling a dice. How often does it land on a 1 or 2? It isn't too unlikely. Well KK vs. AK is the same. Here I built a diagram that you can write out and make into a trial table:

---------KK--------QQ---------JJ
AK|
||||
AQ|
||||
AJ|
||||
Good luck

Also, because other people have folded they are less likely to be holding aces in their pockets so they are slightly more likely to pop up on the board.
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09-11-2014 , 12:32 AM
When you're close to the money stacks will probably be lower and getting it in with AK will usually be the correct play these people aren't donks, they just realize that AK is a hand worth getting in at this point. If you had an opening range as tight as TT+, AQ+ then pushing with AK would be a good play.
JJ-QQ-KK VS AJ-AQ-AK Quote
09-11-2014 , 07:26 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheGodson
Also, because other people have folded they are less likely to be holding aces in their pockets so they are slightly more likely to pop up on the board.
This is wrong. Aces are actually less likely to show on the board because flops are more likely to be seen when players hold an Ace. This effect far outweighs what you describe. And players folding non-Aces happens equally whether flops are seen or not. Aces tend to show on the board only about 96% as often as low cards.

This site shows the distribution of board cards for millions of hands:
http://www.spadebidder.com/flop-analysis/part2/

Last edited by NewOldGuy; 09-11-2014 at 07:34 AM.
JJ-QQ-KK VS AJ-AQ-AK Quote
09-14-2014 , 11:34 PM
Well yeah, because the ace is in the other guy's hand. He has AK so there isn't going to be as likely as a chance for an ace to show up since there are now three in the deck. There may be four 2s in the deck so they are more likely to show up than the ace I get that.

I'm talking about aces showing up in proportion to the odds that they are suppose to appear. We know there are 3 in the deck so that is 3/48 for the first card on the flop to be an ace, but it is actually like 3/47.8 or something. Jimmy in early position folded 83o and not AJs.
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09-15-2014 , 12:46 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheGodson
We know there are 3 in the deck so that is 3/48 for the first card on the flop to be an ace
NOG is talking about the fact that there are more flops where it's 3/48 than where it's 4/48. A lot of the would-have-been 4/48 flops never happened because the hand was over preflop.

P(ace on the flop) > P(ace on the flop | hand goes to the flop)
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02-23-2018 , 02:57 PM
anyone know why JJ vs AJ only has 60-70% chance of winning preflop? is it the straight possibilities for AJ? hitting an ace has like 20% chance right?
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02-23-2018 , 06:01 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by #41tomp
anyone know why JJ vs AJ only has 60-70% chance of winning preflop? is it the straight possibilities for AJ? hitting an ace has like 20% chance right?
An ace will come on the board almost 29% of the time. The rest is straights and Ace High flush.

Last edited by NewOldGuy; 02-23-2018 at 06:09 PM.
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