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 03-12-2017, 03:31 PM #1 OFC_OMG journeyman   Join Date: Apr 2013 Posts: 296 HU SNG loses 7/8 All In Pre: right way to calculate short term variance? small stakes SNG - played ~55 hands HU with villain who folded to most raises, paid off Quads in a big way, folded on 10-high board to my J high 3/4 pot bluff, etc. At one point I had chip lead 16,347 > 1653. IOW I felt I was in control - except for losing 7/8 all ins pre. These were the only hands that got all in pre. Here are the hand equities. What is the right way to think about the variance of these 8 hands as a set, compared to the average equity of each hand? QT < K9 42% / 57% (slight dog) 55 < 78 49% / 49% (flip) K8 < 67 65% / 35% (fav) 2T < AK 34% / 65% (dog) Q9 < A2 45% / 54% (slight dog) AT < QQ 29% / 71% (dog) 37 < A4 40% / 59% (slight dog) Q8 > 76 62% / 37% (fav, only winner) ___________________________________________ Hero avg. equity 46% / Villain avg. equity 47% Hero loses 7/8 all ins, a 13% win rate Villain wins 7/8 all ins, an 87% win rate Hero had > chips in 6/8 hands
 03-14-2017, 08:07 AM #2 Nixie Bobtie enthusiast   Join Date: Feb 2017 Posts: 73 Re: HU SNG loses 7/8 All In Pre: right way to calculate short term variance? I've done some quick maths on this and whilst there are some imperfect assumptions I think it should prove robust enough Simplistically, there are 8 hands and 256 (2^8) combinations of outcome (ignoring ties and the occasions where the bigger stack wins and ends the contest) The average that you quoted for the villain was low, I calculate it as 53% (vs 46% for Hero) If each hand is assumed to be dealt out at the average equity (splitting the remaining tie equity across win & lose) then hero could expect to win 0 of 8 hands - 0.7% 1x - 4.8% (for which there are 8 of the 256 possible combinations) 2x - 14.5% 3x - 24.9% 4x - 26.7% 5x - 18.3% 6x - 7.9% 7x - 1.9% 8x - 0.2% The expectation is for Hero to win c3.7/8 hands, with a standard deviation of +/- 1.4 To have only won once is practically 2 standard deviations from the mean, so a long way from the norm
03-25-2017, 12:09 AM   #3
OFC_OMG
journeyman

Join Date: Apr 2013
Posts: 296
Re: HU SNG loses 7/8 All In Pre: right way to calculate short term variance?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Nixie Bobtie I've done some quick maths on this and whilst there are some imperfect assumptions I think it should prove robust enough Simplistically, there are 8 hands and 256 (2^8) combinations of outcome (ignoring ties and the occasions where the bigger stack wins and ends the contest) The average that you quoted for the villain was low, I calculate it as 53% (vs 46% for Hero) If each hand is assumed to be dealt out at the average equity (splitting the remaining tie equity across win & lose) then hero could expect to win 0 of 8 hands - 0.7% 1x - 4.8% (for which there are 8 of the 256 possible combinations) 2x - 14.5% 3x - 24.9% 4x - 26.7% 5x - 18.3% 6x - 7.9% 7x - 1.9% 8x - 0.2% The expectation is for Hero to win c3.7/8 hands, with a standard deviation of +/- 1.4 To have only won once is practically 2 standard deviations from the mean, so a long way from the norm
Thank you!

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