How often will you flop top pair/kicker with A 10 when - Gambling and Probability

Two Plus Two Forums Other Topics Probability

How often will you flop top pair/kicker with A 10 when

Post Reply Subscribe

...

07-08-2020 , 06:32 PM

apkrnewb

old hand

Join Date: Dec 2008 Posts: 1,650

How often will you flop top pair with A 10 when the 10 is the top paired card, (you paired your 10) and "most importantly" all other cards on the flop are under 10 and not a pair. interested in this action

Quote

07-08-2020 , 09:19 PM

statmanhal

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 4,987

If I interpreted your question correctly, you have AT and want a flop of TXY, where X and Y are less than ten and X<>Y.

For that case, I got (C(3,1)*(C(32,2)-8*6)) /C(50,3) = 7.34%.

Quote

07-09-2020 , 08:48 AM

heehaww

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 5,081

Statman's math is right but he entered it wrong into the calculator. It comes to 6.857% or 12/175

Another way to get the numerator of 1344 is 3*32*28/2

The 32*28 counts the order of the XY; dividing by 2 uncounts it.

Another solution is to count order everywhere: 3*3*32*28/50/49/48

The extra 3 is the 3 places the T can be.

Quote

07-09-2020 , 02:35 PM

apkrnewb

old hand

Join Date: Dec 2008 Posts: 1,650

Yes thankyou very much guys! thats what i was trying to find

Quote

07-09-2020 , 03:22 PM

statmanhal

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 4,987

Quote:

Originally Posted by heehaww

Statman's math is right but he entered it wrong into the calculator. It comes to 6.857% or 12/175

The funny part (actually not so funny) is that I sometimes check my arithmetic with a simulation program I wrote. When I did that, I got the same wrong result by inputting the same wrong data.

Quote

Post Reply Subscribe

...