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Old 05-01-2017, 01:34 AM   #1
apkrnewb
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How often will KQ QQ KK happen

Been running like crap in tourneys for years now. When ever i think i have seen
the worst BAM its something else LOL. Just wondering How often will this happen,
folded to me on button allin 14BB with KQ. Small blind calls with QQ.
Big blind blind calls with KK.
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Old 05-01-2017, 10:43 AM   #2
heehaww
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Re: How often will KQ QQ KK happen

If 9max: combin(9,3) * 16 * (3/5) / combin(52,6) =~ 1 in 25246

16 combos of KKKQQQ
3/5 chance of them being distributed such that only one K and Q are together.

Two good ways to determine the 3/5 fraction are as follows:
3*3 / (5*3)
1 - 2^3 / combin(6,3)

Last edited by heehaww; 05-01-2017 at 10:54 AM.
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Old 05-01-2017, 01:34 PM   #3
statmanhal
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Re: How often will KQ QQ KK happen

I interpreted the question differently, namely that hero has QK and seeks the probability one blind is dealt QQ and the other is dealt KK.

The probability that the blinds are dealt QQ and KK given you have KQ is 2*C(3,2)^2/[C(50,2) *C(48,2)]= 0.000013 or odds against of about 77,000 to 1. This ignores the possibility that a blind may not call or maybe raise and that early folders are less likely to fold a king or queen than lower ranked cards.
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Old 05-01-2017, 05:39 PM   #4
apkrnewb
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Re: How often will KQ QQ KK happen

Thanks guys! Sometimes on the drive home i'm second guessing my decision and your answers helped.
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