I recall reading a post that said KK will be up against AA every >20,000 hands. I tried the search function and could not find it.

How often will your pocket KK be against AA preflop?

In the last 31,000 hands I have had KK 129 times or 1/242. That sounds about right. Is it?

KK is winning 81.4 % and that sounds about right. Is it?

But my pocket KK have run into AA 6 times in 31,000 hands. Seems high to me. Is it?

Thanks for your comments

The chance that your opponent (heads up) has AA when you already have KK is 6 in 1225 -- roughly 1 in 204. If you're playing ring games you can reasonably approximate the likelihood that any of them has that by multiplying by the number of opponents. For a 6 or 10 man ring, your number is pretty close to the expected rate.

The odds of getting dealt KK are 1 in 221. You've been dealt a few less than normal, but nothing too unusual there.

The odds of running KK into AA depend completely on the number of opponents at the table. If it's a heads up game, the odds are 1 in 48841 hands. At a 6 man table it's 1 in 9768 hands. At a 9 man table it's 1 in 6105 hands.

I'm guessing you play 9 man tables, in which case your luck is very slightly worse than it should be. If you play 6 man tables, then you're luck is actually something to complain about.

The overall 81.4% winrate sounds normal too.

These numbers come from 221*221/(N-1), where N is the number of players. This is an approximation since the hands are not independent. This post gives the method to get the exact answers for this and similar problems, along with a more accurate approximation at the bottom. Results are given for 10 and 6 player tables, with a link to some results for 9 and 4 player tables. For this problem, the numbers given in that post assume that you already hold KK, and give the odds that AA is out.

For a 10-player table, we see that the odds of AA being out when you hold KK is about 21.8-to-1, or 1 in 22.8. Since we get dealt KK 1 time in 221 hands on average, to get the overall probability of being dealt KK and facing AA we multiply 22.8 by 221 to get about 1 in 5039. This is 6 in 30,234, which would be right in line with the OP's results if he were on a 10-player table.

In an approximate 8 week period, I had KK v AA 18 times. This does not include two occassions where I laid them down preflop.
I did not outdraw them once. There came a point where 80% of the time when I was reraised holding KK, I got shown AA. Sickening!!!

I sense a potential misunderstanding here. So to make this very clear: Before the cards are dealt in a hand, the chances that you will get KK and then face AA are about 1:5039. However, if you already have KK in your hand, then the chance that someone else has AA (on a 10-player table) are 1:21.8.

Some further observations: If people have already folded before you, then the probability falls roughly in proportion (so if 5 people folded, then it would be approx. 1:43.6). Also, suppose that opponents will reraise with JJ+ and AK and nothing else, then if you have KK and get reraised, the probability that you are facing aces is now actually 1:2.67 - 27%.

The take-away is not to get stuck in thinking "the chances of KK and AA facing each other in a hand are 1:5039" and not taking in new information (such as "I got KK").

BB

I actually encountered AA 2 out of 5 times in one day a few days ago.

KK vs AA is not the sick part. It's getting AK in the SB, and the BB wakes up with AA, 5 of 6 times in one day. And no, I didn't win once, but when I did have an AA during that day and A8o pushed into me, I lost. Argggggh

Anyhow, enough of the bad beat stories. Why AK vs AA seems so terrible is NOT because you are absolutely crushed (well that is true), but because there's only 3 aces left to make AA which makes it that much harder. So yes, these confrontations make me feel robbed more than anything. But that's poker.

Depends on the number of other opponents...

Just do this: (prob. of somebody getting AA when you have KK)(# opponents)

So you get:
(4/50)(3/49)(9) = 0.044081633 (full ring)
(4/50)(3/49)(5) = 0.024489796 (6 max)

Just goes to show that 3-bet ranges in the stakes you play at are extremely tight.

WOW YOU MUST BE PRETTY LUCKY? I'VE HAD THEM IN ONE DAY WITH 3000 HANDS RUN INTO AA 8 TIMES! 6 TIME SIN 31,000 HANDS.....I WORSHIP YOU MY FRIEND BECAUSE ALL I SEE ARE MY KK RUN INTO AA AND THE BEST IS WHEN MY AA RUN INTO KK AND LOSE. THATS THE GRAVY ON TOP.


TO ALL STOP COUNTING STOP DOING THE MATH. MATH DOES NOT APPLY THE CYBER WORLD OF POKER

Check out how sick this is, I've had AA vs KK 6 times out of 15,000 hands, or about twice as often as I should. However, I've only won with AA 2 out of 6 times.

Barf.

That link is broken. Do you have another link / source for the info?

Mike

Here is the new link. Many links got broken when we switched to the new software, and Chuck has been unable to fix them.

Thx .... lots of good reading there !

Mike

so one in 27.6 or rounded to approx 1 out of every 28 times you hold KK pre flop at a full ring table you will face another opponent who holds AA pre is that correct?

cuz GD it don't feel like that everytime i have KK im worried he may have AA haha


but numbers dont lie they may hide but don't lie