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 11-08-2007, 12:38 PM #1 SenatorFoghorn enthusiast   Join Date: Apr 2004 Posts: 70 How often are my KK\'s up against AA Preflop? I recall reading a post that said KK will be up against AA every >20,000 hands. I tried the search function and could not find it. How often will your pocket KK be against AA preflop? In the last 31,000 hands I have had KK 129 times or 1/242. That sounds about right. Is it? KK is winning 81.4 % and that sounds about right. Is it? But my pocket KK have run into AA 6 times in 31,000 hands. Seems high to me. Is it? Thanks for your comments
 11-08-2007, 01:55 PM #2 rufus grinder   Join Date: Aug 2005 Posts: 477 Re: How often are my KK\'s up against AA Preflop? The chance that your opponent (heads up) has AA when you already have KK is 6 in 1225 -- roughly 1 in 204. If you're playing ring games you can reasonably approximate the likelihood that any of them has that by multiplying by the number of opponents. For a 6 or 10 man ring, your number is pretty close to the expected rate.
 11-09-2007, 11:38 AM #3 pococurante centurion   Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: VA Posts: 148 Re: How often are my KK\'s up against AA Preflop? The odds of getting dealt KK are 1 in 221. You've been dealt a few less than normal, but nothing too unusual there. The odds of running KK into AA depend completely on the number of opponents at the table. If it's a heads up game, the odds are 1 in 48841 hands. At a 6 man table it's 1 in 9768 hands. At a 9 man table it's 1 in 6105 hands. I'm guessing you play 9 man tables, in which case your luck is very slightly worse than it should be. If you play 6 man tables, then you're luck is actually something to complain about. The overall 81.4% winrate sounds normal too.
11-09-2007, 12:32 PM   #4
BruceZ
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Join Date: Sep 2002
Posts: 11,877
Re: How often are my KK\'s up against AA Preflop?

Quote:
 The odds of getting dealt KK are 1 in 221. You've been dealt a few less than normal, but nothing too unusual there. The odds of running KK into AA depend completely on the number of opponents at the table. If it's a heads up game, the odds are 1 in 48841 hands. At a 6 man table it's 1 in 9768 hands. At a 9 man table it's 1 in 6105 hands.
These numbers come from 221*221/(N-1), where N is the number of players. This is an approximation since the hands are not independent. This post gives the method to get the exact answers for this and similar problems, along with a more accurate approximation at the bottom. Results are given for 10 and 6 player tables, with a link to some results for 9 and 4 player tables. For this problem, the numbers given in that post assume that you already hold KK, and give the odds that AA is out.

For a 10-player table, we see that the odds of AA being out when you hold KK is about 21.8-to-1, or 1 in 22.8. Since we get dealt KK 1 time in 221 hands on average, to get the overall probability of being dealt KK and facing AA we multiply 22.8 by 221 to get about 1 in 5039. This is 6 in 30,234, which would be right in line with the OP's results if he were on a 10-player table.

 02-14-2008, 07:47 AM #5 Proximo45 stranger   Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 4 Re: How often are my KK's up against AA Preflop? In an approximate 8 week period, I had KK v AA 18 times. This does not include two occassions where I laid them down preflop. I did not outdraw them once. There came a point where 80% of the time when I was reraised holding KK, I got shown AA. Sickening!!!
 02-14-2008, 08:21 AM #6 BluffaloBull journeyman     Join Date: Oct 2007 Location: Mount Doom Posts: 285 Re: How often are my KK's up against AA Preflop? I sense a potential misunderstanding here. So to make this very clear: Before the cards are dealt in a hand, the chances that you will get KK and then face AA are about 1:5039. However, if you already have KK in your hand, then the chance that someone else has AA (on a 10-player table) are 1:21.8. Some further observations: If people have already folded before you, then the probability falls roughly in proportion (so if 5 people folded, then it would be approx. 1:43.6). Also, suppose that opponents will reraise with JJ+ and AK and nothing else, then if you have KK and get reraised, the probability that you are facing aces is now actually 1:2.67 - 27%. The take-away is not to get stuck in thinking "the chances of KK and AA facing each other in a hand are 1:5039" and not taking in new information (such as "I got KK"). BB
 02-14-2008, 10:34 AM #7 xBornToLosex disturbing     Join Date: Feb 2008 Location: Free SPB Posts: 8,848 Re: How often are my KK's up against AA Preflop? I actually encountered AA 2 out of 5 times in one day a few days ago.
 02-20-2008, 12:21 AM #8 Red_Diamond adept   Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 874 Re: How often are my KK's up against AA Preflop? KK vs AA is not the sick part. It's getting AK in the SB, and the BB wakes up with AA, 5 of 6 times in one day. And no, I didn't win once, but when I did have an AA during that day and A8o pushed into me, I lost. Argggggh Anyhow, enough of the bad beat stories. Why AK vs AA seems so terrible is NOT because you are absolutely crushed (well that is true), but because there's only 3 aces left to make AA which makes it that much harder. So yes, these confrontations make me feel robbed more than anything. But that's poker.
 03-19-2008, 08:50 AM #9 Riverdale27 journeyman   Join Date: Aug 2007 Posts: 249 Re: How often are my KK's up against AA Preflop? Depends on the number of other opponents... Just do this: (prob. of somebody getting AA when you have KK)(# opponents) So you get: (4/50)(3/49)(9) = 0.044081633 (full ring) (4/50)(3/49)(5) = 0.024489796 (6 max)
03-19-2008, 10:23 AM   #10
LarryLaughs
grinder

Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 457
Re: How often are my KK's up against AA Preflop?

Quote:
 There came a point where 80% of the time when I was reraised holding KK, I got shown AA.
Just goes to show that 3-bet ranges in the stakes you play at are extremely tight.

04-04-2008, 01:50 PM   #11
vierna
newbie

Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 25
Re: How often are my KK\'s up against AA Preflop?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by SenatorFoghorn I recall reading a post that said KK will be up against AA every >20,000 hands. I tried the search function and could not find it. How often will your pocket KK be against AA preflop? In the last 31,000 hands I have had KK 129 times or 1/242. That sounds about right. Is it? KK is winning 81.4 % and that sounds about right. Is it? But my pocket KK have run into AA 6 times in 31,000 hands. Seems high to me. Is it? Thanks for your comments

WOW YOU MUST BE PRETTY LUCKY? I'VE HAD THEM IN ONE DAY WITH 3000 HANDS RUN INTO AA 8 TIMES! 6 TIME SIN 31,000 HANDS.....I WORSHIP YOU MY FRIEND BECAUSE ALL I SEE ARE MY KK RUN INTO AA AND THE BEST IS WHEN MY AA RUN INTO KK AND LOSE. THATS THE GRAVY ON TOP.

TO ALL STOP COUNTING STOP DOING THE MATH. MATH DOES NOT APPLY THE CYBER WORLD OF POKER

 04-07-2008, 09:41 PM #12 anyhero adept   Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 856 Re: How often are my KK's up against AA Preflop? Check out how sick this is, I've had AA vs KK 6 times out of 15,000 hands, or about twice as often as I should. However, I've only won with AA 2 out of 6 times. Barf.
04-24-2008, 02:23 PM   #13
mstram
journeyman

Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 239
Re: How often are my KK\'s up against AA Preflop?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by BruceZ These numbers come from 221*221/(N-1), where N is the number of players. This is an approximation since the hands are not independent. This post gives the method to get the exact answers for this and similar problems, along with a more accurate approximation at the bottom.
That link is broken. Do you have another link / source for the info?

Mike

04-24-2008, 04:52 PM   #14
BruceZ
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Join Date: Sep 2002
Posts: 11,877
Re: How often are my KK\'s up against AA Preflop?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by mstram That link is broken. Do you have another link / source for the info? Mike
Here is the new link. Many links got broken when we switched to the new software, and Chuck has been unable to fix them.

 04-25-2008, 12:42 AM #15 mstram journeyman   Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 239 Re: How often are my KK's up against AA Preflop? Thx .... lots of good reading there ! Mike
04-26-2008, 03:32 PM   #16
Tukker
enthusiast

Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Malta
Posts: 53
Re: How often are my KK\'s up against AA Preflop?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by vierna WOW YOU MUST BE PRETTY LUCKY? I'VE HAD THEM IN ONE DAY WITH 3000 HANDS RUN INTO AA 8 TIMES! 6 TIME SIN 31,000 HANDS.....I WORSHIP YOU MY FRIEND BECAUSE ALL I SEE ARE MY KK RUN INTO AA AND THE BEST IS WHEN MY AA RUN INTO KK AND LOSE. THATS THE GRAVY ON TOP. TO ALL STOP COUNTING STOP DOING THE MATH. MATH DOES NOT APPLY THE CYBER WORLD OF POKER

 04-22-2015, 05:05 AM #17 rawbillyice newbie   Join Date: Nov 2012 Posts: 28 Re: How often are my KK's up against AA Preflop? so one in 27.6 or rounded to approx 1 out of every 28 times you hold KK pre flop at a full ring table you will face another opponent who holds AA pre is that correct? cuz GD it don't feel like that everytime i have KK im worried he may have AA haha but numbers dont lie they may hide but don't lie
 09-23-2017, 11:07 PM #18 Fred journeyman   Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 263 Re: How often are my KK's up against AA Preflop? This thread depresses me. I've ran KK into twice today, 3 times yesterday. I play about 6k hands per day and usually run KK into AA at least once per day I did get AA vs KK twice though, but lost to a set of kings both times
 10-03-2017, 08:40 AM #19 heehaww Pooh-Bah     Join Date: Aug 2011 Location: Tacooos!!!! Posts: 4,942 Re: How often are my KK's up against AA Preflop? Play fewer hands per day and it won't happen as often
 11-12-2017, 10:51 AM #20 Crane old hand     Join Date: Jun 2007 Posts: 1,376 Re: How often are my KK's up against AA Preflop? I'm very old and senile, so someone please clarify for me. In a ten-handed game, If I look down and see KK, then the odds are only 22 to one against someone looking down and seeing AA!? Have I got this right?
11-13-2017, 09:38 AM   #21
akkopower1
centurion

Join Date: Feb 2017
Posts: 196
Re: How often are my KK's up against AA Preflop?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Crane I'm very old and senile, so someone please clarify for me. In a ten-handed game, If I look down and see KK, then the odds are only 22 to one against someone looking down and seeing AA!? Have I got this right?

yep, it does make sence.

If you get KK (or any other pokcet pair) roughly 1 in 200 times. Then out of 9 other people at a table, it would be roughly 1 in 20 that any one person has any exact pocket pair.

11-13-2017, 11:03 AM   #22
heehaww
Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: Tacooos!!!!
Posts: 4,942
Re: How often are my KK's up against AA Preflop?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Crane In a ten-handed game, If I look down and see KK, then the odds are only 22 to one against someone looking down and seeing AA!?
Even better: 1 in 22, so 21-to-1 against!

This link has a correct table of exact percentages for each pair being dominated at an N-player table for N=2 to 10. Do a CTRL+F search for "Larry B."

Last edited by heehaww; 11-13-2017 at 11:10 AM.

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