Two Plus Two Poker Forums How to calculate winning 4 of 5 times with AA vs. KK
 Register FAQ Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read Video Directory TwoPlusTwo.com

 Notices

 Probability Discussions of probability theory

 05-18-2017, 12:43 PM #1 pokerfresse newbie   Join Date: Dec 2015 Posts: 43 How to calculate winning 4 of 5 times with AA vs. KK Hello, I don't want this thread to be another bad beat thread, so I've made this new thread and reformulated my question: How can I calculate the probability to win 4 of 5 with AA vs. KK? If am only interested in this short term (5 times). Do I need the bionomal coefficient for the calculation? I'm sure i had this already at college or university and that it's pretty simple
 05-18-2017, 02:40 PM #2 statmanhal Pooh-Bah   Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 3,968 Re: How to calculate winning 4 of 5 times with AA vs. KK To win AT LEAST 4 out of 5 times if the constant win probability is 80% : Exactly 4 wins: 5*(0.8^4)*0.2 = 0.4096 (5 is the number of ways (combos) for 4 wins out of 5 trials) 5 wins: 0.8^5 = 0.3277 Sum = 0.7373 Yes, these are binomial probabilities.
05-18-2017, 03:13 PM   #3
pokerfresse
newbie

Join Date: Dec 2015
Posts: 43
Re: How to calculate winning 4 of 5 times with AA vs. KK

Quote:
 Originally Posted by statmanhal To win AT LEAST 4 out of 5 times if the constant win probability is 80% : Exactly 4 wins: 5*(0.8^4)*0.2 = 0.4096 (5 is the number of ways (combos) for 4 wins out of 5 trials) 5 wins: 0.8^5 = 0.3277 Sum = 0.7373 Yes, these are binomial probabilities.
Thank you!

And what would be the calc. for winning max. one time with AA vs. KK in 9 cases? So when I have 9 times a prob. to win of 0,8 but i win only 1 time in 9 cases?

EDIT:
Which of these formulas is it

Last edited by pokerfresse; 05-18-2017 at 03:19 PM.

 05-18-2017, 04:03 PM #4 statmanhal Pooh-Bah   Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 3,968 Re: How to calculate winning 4 of 5 times with AA vs. KK Those formulas do not directly address the question you have. You can get the answer yourself with a little thought and math. For 0 successes in 9 trials with success prob. = 0.8, that means you fail 9 of 9 times. Fail prob = 0.2. Fail 1 of 1 = 0.2: Fail 2 of 2 = 0.2*0.2 = 0.2^2=0.4 . . . fail 9 of 9 = 0.2^9 =.000000512 For exactly one success, consider the case of 8 fails first and then a success. Prob = (0.2^8) * 0.8 =0.000002048. But there are a total of 9 positions for the success, so the total is 9*(0.2^8)*0.8 =0.000018432. Since you asked for a max of one success,you add the two results together to get 0.000018944. The best way to do these problems is learn the binomial distribution. There are free calculators on the Internet. You can also use Excel’s BINOMDIST. If you are looking to show a site is rigged disregard my answer
05-18-2017, 04:13 PM   #5
pokerfresse
newbie

Join Date: Dec 2015
Posts: 43
Re: How to calculate winning 4 of 5 times with AA vs. KK

Quote:
 Originally Posted by statmanhal Those formulas do not directly address the question you have. You can get the answer yourself with a little thought and math. For 0 successes in 9 trials with success prob. = 0.8, that means you fail 9 of 9 times. Fail prob = 0.2. Fail 1 of 1 = 0.2: Fail 2 of 2 = 0.2*0.2 = 0.2^2=0.4 . . . fail 9 of 9 = 0.2^9 =.000000512 For exactly one success, consider the case of 8 fails first and then a success. Prob = (0.2^8) * 0.8 =0.000002048. But there are a total of 9 positions for the success, so the total is 9*(0.2^8)*0.8 =0.000018432. Since you asked for a max of one success,you add the two results together to get 0.000018944. The best way to do these problems is learn the binomial distribution. There are free calculators on the Internet. You can also use Excel’s BINOMDIST.

Quote:
 If you are looking to show a site is rigged disregard my answer
Haha no Just curiosity

 Thread Tools Display Modes Linear Mode

 Posting Rules You may not post new threads You may not post replies You may not post attachments You may not edit your posts BB code is On Smilies are On [IMG] code is On HTML code is Off Forum Rules
 Forum Jump User Control Panel Private Messages Subscriptions Who's Online Search Forums Forums Home Links to Popular Forums     News, Views, and Gossip     Beginners Questions     Marketplace & Staking     Casino & Cardroom Poker     Internet Poker     NL Strategy Forums     Poker Goals & Challenges     Las Vegas Lifestyle     Sporting Events     Politics     Other Other Topics Two Plus Two     About the Forums     Two Plus Two Magazine Forum     The Two Plus Two Bonus Program     Two Plus Two Pokercast     The Best of Two Plus Two Marketplace & Staking     Commercial Marketplace     General Marketplace     Staking - Offering Stakes     Staking         Staking - Offering Stakes         Staking - Seeking Stakes         Staking - Selling Shares - Online         Staking - Selling Shares - Live         Staking Rails         Transaction Feedback & Disputes     Transaction Feedback & Disputes Coaching & Training     Coaching Advice     Cash Game Poker Coach Listings     Tournament/SNG Poker Coach Listings Poker News & Discussion     News, Views, and Gossip     Poker Goals & Challenges     Poker Beats, Brags, and Variance     That's What She Said!     Poker Legislation & PPA Discussion hosted by Rich Muny     Twitch - Watch and Discuss Live Online Poker     Televised Poker     Two Plus Two Videos General Poker Strategy     Beginners Questions     Books and Publications     Poker Tells/Behavior, hosted by: Zachary Elwood     Poker Theory     Psychology No Limit Hold'em Strategy     Medium-High Stakes PL/NL     Micro-Small Stakes PL/NL     Medium-High Stakes Full Ring     Micro-Small Stakes Full Ring     Heads Up NL     Live Low-stakes NL Limit Texas Hold'em Strategy     Mid-High Stakes Limit     Micro-Small Stakes Limit Tournament Poker Strategy     STT Strategy     Heads Up SNG and Spin and Gos     Mid-High Stakes MTT     Small Stakes MTT     MTT Community Other Poker Strategy     High Stakes PL Omaha     Small Stakes PL Omaha     Omaha/8     Stud     Draw and Other Poker Live Poker     Casino & Cardroom Poker         Venues & Communities         Regional Communities     Venues & Communities     Tournament Events         WPT.com     Home Poker     Cash Strategy     Tournament Strategy Internet Poker     Internet Poker         Winning Poker Network         nj.partypoker.com         Global Poker     Commercial Software     Software         Commercial Software         Free Software General Gambling     Backgammon Forum hosted by Bill Robertie.     Probability     Sports Betting     Other Gambling Games 2+2 Communities     Other Other Topics         OOTV         Game of Thrones     The Lounge: Discussion+Review     EDF     Las Vegas Lifestyle     BBV4Life         omg omg omg     House of Blogs Sports and Games     Sporting Events         Single-Team Season Threads         Fantasy Sports     Fantasy Sports         Sporting Events     Wrestling     Golf     Chess and Other Board Games     Video Games         League of Legends         Hearthstone     Puzzles and Other Games Other Topics     Politics     History     Business, Finance, and Investing     Science, Math, and Philosophy     Religion, God, and Theology     Travel     Health and Fitness     Laughs or Links!     Computer Technical Help     Programming International Forums     Deutsch         BBV [German]     Français     Two Plus Two en Espańol

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 01:08 AM.

 Contact Us - Two Plus Two Publishing LLC - Privacy Statement - Top