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Old 05-25-2021, 10:34 PM   #1
CoitusMaximus
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Arrow How to calculate the probability of bankroll wipe out?

I have a question regarding calculating the probability. Please check this spread sheet. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...#gid=644533306 using the continous 3% conditional compounding strategy like the one in this spreadsheet, how do you calculate the probability of bank roll wipe out (-333.33 unit down swing). Is it even possible since the odds of the bets are not fixed?
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Old 05-26-2021, 01:27 AM   #2
browni3141
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Re: How to calculate the probability of bankroll wipe out?

The term for this is risk of ruin, usually abbreviated RoR.

However I'm struggling to understand exactly what betting strategy is being used. In something like sports betting with scalable bet sizing you'd usually size your bets in some proportion to your bankroll. In that case your RoR is essentially 0 as you'd never end up betting 100% of your roll (not exactly in practice because you can't place arbitrarily small bets).
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Old 05-26-2021, 09:04 AM   #3
CoitusMaximus
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Re: How to calculate the probability of bankroll wipe out?

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Originally Posted by browni3141 View Post
The term for this is risk of ruin, usually abbreviated RoR.

However I'm struggling to understand exactly what betting strategy is being used. In something like sports betting with scalable bet sizing you'd usually size your bets in some proportion to your bankroll. In that case your RoR is essentially 0 as you'd never end up betting 100% of your roll (not exactly in practice because you can't place arbitrarily small bets).
The settings sheet of the above spreadsheet has a link to the money management strategy used. In a nutshell, you bet 1 to 10 unit on picks where 1 unit = .3% of the bankroll. So the max bet or the 10 unit bet is 3%. Majority of the bets used in the spreadsheet are 8 units or 2.6% of bankroll. After each day, you compound the winnings into the bankroll and increase the bet size to reflect the new bankroll. However, whenever there is down days, you don't change the bankroll; that is, the unit size remains the same until the bankroll reaches a new high.

I hope that helps.
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Old 05-26-2021, 03:00 PM   #4
rabbitcoin
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Re: How to calculate the probability of bankroll wipe out?

Have you tried asking that tout what they project the risk of ruin to be when using their strategy, and the methodology they used to calculate it?

There's enough data in that spreadsheet to simulate it, but since you are already paying them for picks, I assume they would also be happy to provide a full portfolio analysis and projection for their clients.
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Old 05-27-2021, 12:28 AM   #5
VeniceMerchant
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Re: How to calculate the probability of bankroll wipe out?



Any site that claims you can just double your money every 3 months like clockwork is fos.

$60k profit in 2018 and 1 mil profit in 2020? lol
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Old 06-05-2021, 04:59 PM   #6
stremba70
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Re: How to calculate the probability of bankroll wipe out?

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Originally Posted by VeniceMerchant View Post


Any site that claims you can just double your money every 3 months like clockwork is fos.

$60k profit in 2018 and 1 mil profit in 2020? lol
Iím always skeptical of anyone who tries to sell you sports betting picks, systems etc., promising that you will win/get rich. If your system is so great, then why arenít you using it to get rich yourself instead of selling picks? Selling picks to gamblers is certainly much more lucrative and less risky than using your own system.
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Old 06-05-2021, 09:59 PM   #7
VeniceMerchant
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Re: How to calculate the probability of bankroll wipe out?

Especially these types, where they act like it's realistic to double your money 4x a year like clockwork. They throw around just enough buzzwords for a punter to think it's legit.
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