Quote:
Originally Posted by heehaww
Oh then now I see why you're multiplying by those numbers, but that's not quite right for two reasons:
1. You can get counterfeited out of the jackpot by making a higher SF that no longer uses both hole cards.
2. You're over-counting some of the same straight flush combos eg a board of 2347x is double-counted and 23478 is tripled-counted.
With 65, if the board comes 789 then the other two cards can't contain a T of that suit. If the board comes 478 then the other two cards can't be 9T.
P(jackpot with 65) = P(234xx) + P(347xx and no 2) + P(478xx and no 3 and no 9T) + P(789xx and no 4 and no T) = 1/1960 + [2(46C2)–1 + 45C2]/(50C5)
≈ .001954 ≈ 1/512
Base on a 750BB jackpot
Suited connectors 54-JT
.001954 ≈ 1/512
+1.46bb in EV
One gapper QT-53 , QJ, 43
.001454
+1.09bb in EV
two gapper KT-52, KQ, KJ, 42, 32
.000954
+0.72bb in EV
other AT+,A5-A2, K9, Q8, J7, T6, 95, 84, 73, 62,
.000454
+0.34 in EV
I voluntary ignore the fact some hands cannot be counterfeit (exemple AK) because those hands gonna be +EV anyway.