Quote:
Originally Posted by dan233
Actually this test is just about the numbers. Not about playing cards.
So let's say I have to guess the rank only (one to nine). Suit doesn't matter. Each card can be numbered 1-9
There are 5 of them. I guess three correctly.
I am asking about the test in the video below. I think the neuroscientist is calculating the probability incorrectly at the 4:10 mark.
She calculated 1/9*1/9*1/9 (for three good guesses out of five cards) :
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N7dDMfSFfLY
if this game is played in a sequence without replacing the cards, then the probabilities would be like this (g means good guess, b bad):
bbggg : 8/9 * 7/8 * 1/7 * 1/6 * 1/5
bgbgg : 8/9 * 1/8 * 6/7 * 1/6 * 1/5
bggbg : 8/9 * 1/8 * 1/7 * 5/6 * 1/5
bgggb : 8/9 * 1/8 * 1/7 * 1/6 * 4/5
gbbgg : ...
gbgbg
gbggb
ggbbg
ggbgb
gggbb
total probability should be 0.0235 or 2.35%
Last edited by md46135; 06-01-2018 at 09:45 AM.