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Got dealt AA on 3 tables simultaneously and stacked KK en passant twice - WHAT?! Got dealt AA on 3 tables simultaneously and stacked KK en passant twice - WHAT?!

12-08-2018 , 04:40 PM
Flopped royal- and straight-flushes. No problem. I've seen it all.

But what about this beauty?

It happened on a relaxing early AM grind (3tabling nl10 atm) on an euro site of my choice. All of a sudden AA on all 3 tables. It went all-in pre, all-in on the turn and on the other hand the guy folded on the turn.
Only in hindsight I noticed, that I stacked Kings on both tables as well. -WOW

I didn't manage to make a screenshot as it happened,
but the client provides hand histories. Here you go:

6:25:09 AA vs random


6:25:19 AA vs KK


6:25:27 AA vs KK


Let`s talk probabilities

Are we talking a larger than one in a billion chance that this is going to happen?

Looking forward to hear from you.
Got dealt AA on 3 tables simultaneously and stacked KK en passant twice - WHAT?! Quote
12-08-2018 , 04:47 PM
The probability it happens to someone, sometime is 100%.
Got dealt AA on 3 tables simultaneously and stacked KK en passant twice - WHAT?! Quote
12-08-2018 , 09:41 PM
I'm too lazy to make a precise calculation, but yes, the probability of such a card distribution happening within the same fixed minute, assuming that the stacks always go in when 1 of the 5 opponents is dealt KK, is 1 in a few billions.

Even if 1.3 hands are dealt per minute per table (I don't know the speed at Unibet ), AA gets dealt in ~0.6% of cases at 1 table within the minute, hence 1 in 5 million at 3 tables.

The probability of 1 out of 5 opponents at a fixed table being dealt KK (out of the 50 cards not visible to Hero) is 0.024-0.025 (let's denote it 'p', I'm too lazy to do the exact combinatorics; it's 5 times the probability of a fixed opponent having KK (5 times 6/(50*49/2)) minus the probability of 2 opponents having KK at the same time), then, by the binomial distribution formula, the probability of this happening at exactly 2 out of the 3 independent tables is 3*p*p*(1-p) ~ 0.002 = 1/500 (as C(3,2)=3). Multiplying that by one five-millionth, we get about 1 in 2.5 billion.

P.S. Lol at the aliases of Seats 1 and 4 in hand 3 (the latter is the translation of the b-word into Russian; Slavs like to exploit the fact that English-speaking staff doesn't understand transliterated Russian words). I pity seat 1, who had probably been out of luck at HexaPro [Unibet's jackpot SNGs], switched to cash games to escape the doomswitch but lost with KK to your AA

Last edited by coon74; 12-08-2018 at 09:54 PM.
Got dealt AA on 3 tables simultaneously and stacked KK en passant twice - WHAT?! Quote
12-09-2018 , 02:04 AM
Thanks for your time coon74!

That is a funny note about our Slavic friends. Didn't know that.
Unibet does not provide Speed Tables anymore. So these are regular tables.

My amateurish calculation goes like this:

Get dealt aces 3 times in a row: 221 x 221 x 221 = 1 : 10,793,861
Of the remaining 15 players on 3 tables someone gets dealt Kings: 205 : 15 = 13.66
Of the remaining 10 players on 2 tables someone gets dealt Kings: 205 : 10 = 20.5

-> 10793861 x 13.66 x 20.5 = 3,024,080,056

1 in 3 Billion

Last edited by hankat; 12-09-2018 at 02:10 AM.
Got dealt AA on 3 tables simultaneously and stacked KK en passant twice - WHAT?! Quote
12-09-2018 , 10:43 AM
The issue is that it's hard to define the notion of hands being dealt 'simultaneously' at 3 tables because they start and end at different times, so I was talking about the probability of being dealt them within a fixed time period (a calendar minute) and assumed a slightly higher speed of dealing than once a minute.
Got dealt AA on 3 tables simultaneously and stacked KK en passant twice - WHAT?! Quote
12-09-2018 , 11:54 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by hankat
Get dealt aces 3 times in a row: 221 x 221 x 221 = 1 : 10,793,861
This only works if it is your next three hands. If it is sometime this session, or this week, or this year it is different.
Got dealt AA on 3 tables simultaneously and stacked KK en passant twice - WHAT?! Quote
12-09-2018 , 05:08 PM
I understand the flaws here.
Let's make it a perfect scenario then:

3 tables, hands are dealt hand to hand!

Chance that on one of the tables Hero gets dealt Aces is 1 in 73.66 hands
On one of the other two 1 in 110.5 hands
and for the last one 1 in 221 hands

73.66 x 110.5 x 221 = 1,798,976

Bringing Kings into play:

Of the remaining 15 players on 3 tables someone gets dealt Kings:
205 : 15 = 13.66
Of the remaining 10 players on 2 tables someone gets dealt Kings:
205 : 10 = 20.5

1,798,976 x 13.66 x 20.5 = 503,767,482

Still impressed
Got dealt AA on 3 tables simultaneously and stacked KK en passant twice - WHAT?! Quote
12-10-2018 , 11:11 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by hankat
1,798,976 x 13.66 x 20.5 = 503,767,482

Still impressed
Either way, as Didace pointed out the calculation still only represents the chance you see this event on your very next 3 hands. The chance you see it in the next month is orders of magnitude greater. The chance some 2+2 poster sees it sometime in the next year is likely close to 100%. You were just the one this time.

Last edited by NewOldGuy; 12-10-2018 at 11:19 PM.
Got dealt AA on 3 tables simultaneously and stacked KK en passant twice - WHAT?! Quote
12-13-2018 , 12:28 PM
The truly surprising thing is that AA won each of the three hands

(if you play enough poker in your life, even that seemingly probable result can "feel" unusual)
Got dealt AA on 3 tables simultaneously and stacked KK en passant twice - WHAT?! Quote

      
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