Two Plus Two Poker Forums A +EV plus a -EV stat to get better return?
 User Name Remember Me? Password
 Register FAQ Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read TwoPlusTwo.com

 Probability Discussions of probability theory

 Thread Tools Display Modes
 04-19-2021, 11:55 PM #1 VeniceMerchant grinder   Join Date: Mar 2020 Posts: 427 A +EV plus a -EV stat to get better return? I have been backtesting 24 different combinations of stats to bet on 5 years worth of historical lines. One of my offense models has a 6% return. My best pitching model has a -0.5% return. When I do different ratios like 30% hitting 70% pitching or whatever, I get even better results than either by themselves. The thing is, I can't quite understand why that would be the case. Doesn't that seem counterintuitive? Has anyone had a similar experience?
 04-20-2021, 01:13 PM #2 heehaww Pooh-Bah     Join Date: Aug 2011 Location: Tacooos!!!! Posts: 4,954 Re: A +EV plus a -EV stat to get better return? Not enough info. What are your models producing, prop lines? When you talk about mixing them, what does that mean?
 04-20-2021, 01:27 PM #3 VeniceMerchant grinder   Join Date: Mar 2020 Posts: 427 Re: A +EV plus a -EV stat to get better return? Straight ML bets. And combining a hitting + pitching stat gives a higher win rate than either one alone.
 04-20-2021, 03:01 PM #4 heehaww Pooh-Bah     Join Date: Aug 2011 Location: Tacooos!!!! Posts: 4,954 Re: A +EV plus a -EV stat to get better return? I would still need more details to be able to explain what's happening. Assume that we're laymen when it comes to sports modeling and make it so that we can use only our knowledge of probability to give an answer. What I can tell you is that incorporating something that's truly -EV or noise doesn't improve your overall EV. However, if you're adjusting some kind of weight assigned to each stat, then that's a different strategy altogether and wouldn't necessarily be related to the EV of a strategy that uses weights of 0 or 100 for each stat. Or if your 70% means "70% of bets produced by the pitching stat" then it's certainly possible that the 30% of the discarded bets happened to include a disproportionate amount of losing bets by chance alone.
 04-20-2021, 03:56 PM #5 VeniceMerchant grinder   Join Date: Mar 2020 Posts: 427 Re: A +EV plus a -EV stat to get better return? Ok, so my combination of offensive stats that I use returns 6% just factoring offense. The defense stats, returns -.5% using only defense Using a 70% weight of the offensive stat + 30% of the defensive stat gives a better number than both separately. It's still betting the same number of games.
 04-20-2021, 04:22 PM #6 heehaww Pooh-Bah     Join Date: Aug 2011 Location: Tacooos!!!! Posts: 4,954 Re: A +EV plus a -EV stat to get better return? Ok so then if I understand you correctly, nothing weird would have to be going on for this to be a real effect. As an extreme example, if I try to predict the winner based only on who has the better starting pitcher, that will be a -EV model because that's not the only factor. But that doesn't mean that factoring the starting pitcher is a blanket -EV thing to do or that it's not a real factor. It just means that I gave that factor the wrong weight relative to other factors.
04-21-2021, 10:41 PM   #7
rabbitcoin
centurion

Join Date: Jan 2021
Location: Nevada, USA
Posts: 158
Re: A +EV plus a -EV stat to get better return?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by heehaww Ok so then if I understand you correctly, nothing weird would have to be going on for this to be a real effect. As an extreme example, if I try to predict the winner based only on who has the better starting pitcher, that will be a -EV model because that's not the only factor. But that doesn't mean that factoring the starting pitcher is a blanket -EV thing to do or that it's not a real factor. It just means that I gave that factor the wrong weight relative to other factors.
Theoretical question:
Imagine that for a certain sport one used their domain expertise to isolate 3 stats (A, B, and C) they think will have strong predictive value. They perform a linear regression to get the ideal weighting of each stat, and when backtesting wagers of that 3-feature model it has a positive return on investment. However, when they look back at the regression report they notice that stat C has a p-value greater than 0.05 so they remove it as a feature from the model, but then the wagering backtest has a slightly lower ROI, say around 0.5 to 1% less.

Would you assign more importance to the information provided by the p-value and continue to leave stat C out of the model, or would you assign more importance to the backtest ROI and leave stat C in the model?

 Thread Tools Display Modes Linear Mode

 Posting Rules You may not post new threads You may not post replies You may not post attachments You may not edit your posts BB code is On Smilies are On [IMG] code is On HTML code is Off Forum Rules
 Forum Jump User Control Panel Private Messages Subscriptions Who's Online Search Forums Forums Home Links to Popular Forums     News, Views, Gossip and Books     Beginners Questions     Marketplace & Staking     Casino & Cardroom Poker     Internet Poker     NL Strategy Forums     Poker Goals & Challenges     Las Vegas Lifestyle     Sporting Events     Other Other Topics Two Plus Two     About the Forums     Two Plus Two Magazine Forum Marketplace & Staking     Commercial Marketplace     General Marketplace     Staking - Offering Stakes     Staking         Staking - Offering Stakes         Staking - Seeking Stakes         Staking - Selling Shares - Online         Staking - Selling Shares - Live         Staking Rails         Transaction Feedback & Disputes     Transaction Feedback & Disputes Coaching & Training     Coaching Advice     Cash Game Poker Coach Listings     Tournament/SNG Poker Coach Listings Poker News & Discussion     News, Views, Gossip and Books     Poker Goals & Challenges     Poker Beats, Brags, and Variance     That's What She Said!     Legislation for Poker & Income Taxes for Poker Players     Twitch - Watch and Discuss Live Online Poker     Televised Poker General Poker Strategy     Beginners Questions     Books and Publications     Poker Tells/Behavior, hosted by: Zachary Elwood     Poker Theory     Psychology No Limit Hold'em Strategy     Medium-High Stakes PL/NL     Micro-Small Stakes PL/NL     Medium-High Stakes Full Ring     Micro-Small Stakes Full Ring     Heads Up NL     Live Low-stakes NL Limit Texas Hold'em Strategy     Mid-High Stakes Limit     Micro-Small Stakes Limit Tournament Poker Strategy     STT Strategy     Heads Up SNG and Spin and Gos     Mid-High Stakes MTT     Small Stakes MTT     MTT Community     Tournament Events Other Poker Strategy     High Stakes PL Omaha     Small Stakes PL Omaha     Omaha/8     Stud     Draw and Other Poker Live Poker     Casino & Cardroom Poker         Venues & Communities         Regional Communities     Venues & Communities     Tournament Events         WPT.com     Home Poker     Cash Strategy     Tournament Strategy Internet Poker     Internet Poker         Global Poker         BetOnline.ag Online Poker     Commercial Software     Software         Commercial Software         Free Software General Gambling     Backgammon Forum hosted by Bill Robertie.     Probability     Sports Betting     Other Gambling Games 2+2 Communities     Other Other Topics         OOTV         Game of Thrones     The Lounge: Discussion+Review     Las Vegas Lifestyle     BBV4Life         omg omg omg     House of Blogs Sports and Games     Sporting Events         Single-Team Season Threads         Fantasy Sports     Fantasy Sports         Sporting Events     Wrestling     Golf     Chess and Other Board Games     Video Games         League of Legends         Hearthstone     Puzzles and Other Games Other Topics     Politics and Society     History     Business, Finance, and Investing     Science, Math, and Philosophy     Religion, God, and Theology     Travel     Health and Fitness     Laughs or Links!     Computer Technical Help     Programming

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 05:00 AM.

 Contact Us - Two Plus Two Publishing LLC - Privacy Statement - Top

Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright © 2008-2020, Two Plus Two Interactive